Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0936
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
605 PM EDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072203Z - 080203Z

Summary...Ongoing thunderstorms expected to persist into this
evening along a warm front and ahead of a shortwave trough.

Discussion...A shortwave trough is noted over the south-central TX
panhandle in 2132 UTC GOES-16 mid-level water vapor imagery. A
cluster of thunderstorms have developed along the NM/TX border per
regional radars. This activity is in the dry slot of the expansive
long-wave trough over the western CONUS per GOES-16 imagery.
Instability in this dry slot has increased with MLCAPE around 2000
J/Kg per recent RAP analysis with an easterly component to the
southerly flow has brought low level moisture from the warm
conveyor belt onto the high plains of the western TX panhandle.

Recent HRRR runs have been too progressive and underdone with this
activity.  The combination of instability, moisture influx, and a
surface front warrants a heightened awareness of the flash flood
threat here. One hour rain rates of 1.5 to 2" per hour are
estimated both WSW of KAMA and just northwest into NM. These rates
can be expected to continue with a slight northward drift over the
next few hours as the shortwave outpaces the warm front.

Flash flood guidance west of Amarillo is lower (around 1.5 inches
in 3 hours) from 0.5 to 0.75" inches that fell before 12Z today.
Otherwise FFG is 2 to 2.5" in 3 hours.

Given the ongoing heavy rainfall and potential to continue past
00Z, there is a possible threat for flash flooding.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36120202 35650162 35050177 34440221 34410305
            35040352 36090303