Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0938
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
947 PM EDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Areas affected...Eastern NM...TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080145Z - 080745Z

Summary...An axis of semi-organized convection will evolve across
far eastern NM while convection persists across areas of the TX
panhandle. Flash flooding will be likely across much of the region
over the next few hours.

Discussion...A strong upper trough over the Southwest U.S. will
continue to edge slowly eastward overnight and will encounter an
increasingly moist/unstable airmass pooling up across west TX and
into far eastern areas of NM with persistent low-level southeast
flow. In fact, the latest RAP analysis shows an axis of moderate
instability with 1500 to 2000 j/kg of MLCAPE focusing along a
lee-side trough over the southern High Plains. Given the presence
of strongly diffluent flow aloft ahead of the upper trough, and
rather strong low-level convergence, the convection should tend to
be rather organized over the next several hours as it expands over
eastern NM and approaches areas of west TX.

Meanwhile, there will be additional convective development in an
elevated fashion across the TX panhandle and to the north of a
quasi-stationary frontal zone. Moist and deep layer southerly flow
over the boundary within the proximity of favorable right-entrance
region jet dynamics should sustain the convective threat across
this region going well past 06Z.

Expect as much as 3 to 4+ inches of additional rain across areas
of the TX panhandle where convection will tend to be repeating in
nature as suggested by the latest hires model consensus.
Meanwhile, 2 to 3+ inches of rain can be expected for areas of
eastern NM ahead of the lee-side trough. Areas of flash flooding
will be likely.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36540235 36540189 36360116 35890113 35550140
            35000247 34220325 33770370 33450421 33480460
            33780478 34670469 35580444 36180401 36500320