Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0939
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1009 PM EDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Areas affected...Central/Northeast MO to Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080205Z - 080705Z

Summary...Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
overnight with heavy rainfall amounts and some flash flooding
possible.

Discussion...The latest IR satellite imagery shows additional
areas of cold-topped convection developing across northeast MO and
into areas of west-central IL which is all focusing along and
generally northwest of a quasi-stationary frontal zone. A nose of
instability characterized by MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 j/kg
extends northeast up along the boundary across the region, and
this coupled with modest right-entrance region jet ascent is
expected to maintain the convective threat over the next several
hours.

PWATs across the region are on the order of 1.6 to 1.8 inches and
conducive to heavy rainfall rates through the overnight hours. The
latest HRRR guidance favors locally as much as 3 to 4+ inches of
additional rainfall going through 06Z, and these totals may result
in some additional flash flooding.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41428833 40978783 40488838 40008940 39429038
            38979122 38499187 38239230 38069279 38239306
            38769298 39469236 40399104 41228943