Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0942
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Areas affected...Northern OK...South-Central to Eastern
KS...West-Central to Northern MO...Southern IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080830Z - 081430Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall with locally repeating rounds of showers
and thunderstorms can be expected through mid-morning. Flash
flooding will be possible.

Discussion...The latest GOES-16 WV imagery shows a highly
divergent flow pattern across the central Plains downstream of a
strong deep layer closed low/trough axis across the Four Corners
region. The resulting deep layer southerly flow across the Plains
continues to transport anomalous moisture northward with PWATS of
1.6 to 1.8 inches which is a solid 2 to 3 standard deviations
above normal. A dual-fetch of moisture is in place, with low level
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and mid to high level moisture
coming north from the eastern Pacific and across mainland Mexico.

Meanwhile, a warm front is seen lifting northward and there is at
least a modest degree of instability continuing to pool along and
north of the boundary which has been facilitating a large area of
elevated convection throughout the night across the central Plains
and the Midwest. MUCAPE values as per the latest RAP analysis
remain as high as 1000 to 2000 j/kg with the strongest nose of
instability focused up across southwest to northeast MO to the
southeast of the front.

Over the next several hours, an expansive area of heavy showers
and thunderstorms will continue to focus north of the front with
occasional repeating of cell activity. This will foster heavy
rainfall amounts in addition to what has already fallen.

The latest hires model guidance including the HRRR has generally
been too far north with its QPF axis overnight, but adjusting the
axis a bit further south will support areas of far northern OK,
south-central/eastern KS and west-central MO seeing an additional
2 to 4 inches of rain through mid-morning. Meanwhile, adjacent
areas of northern MO and southern IA may see as much as 1 to 3
inches. Given the wet antecedent conditions that are in place
across many of these areas, some flash flooding will be possible
this morning.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...OAX...
OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42119170 42039065 41559046 41219070 40679127
            39899242 39199316 37969457 37029627 36509759
            36079857 36039924 36249987 36850007 37609976
            38109894 38859750 39329659 39699587 40409503
            41449365