Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0944
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
136 PM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Areas affected...TX Panhandle...West-Central OK...South-Central KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081735Z - 082335Z

Summary...Ongoing widespread showers and thunderstorms will
increase in intensity through the afternoon, likely leading to
flash flooding over saturated soils.

Discussion...Latest GOES-East water vapor imagery and 500 mb
heights showed very pronounced longwave trough over the southwest
US with several stronger shortwaves rounding through the flow. One
was lifting through south-central TX with another across
west-central TX and finally a third rounding the base of the
trough across Mexico. Very strong upper level divergence across
the south-central Plains is evident. At the surface, a stationary
boundary is draped across portions of the TX panhandle into
northern OK and southern KS. Ahead of this, very impressive
850-700 mb flow is transporting copious amounts of moisture,
evident by the GPS TPWs of 1.6 to 1.8", which is roughly 2-3 SD
above normal for early October.

Recent mesoanalysis shows instability has continued to build over
the last few hours with SBCAPE ranging from around 2000 J/kg
across southern KS and OK to pockets of 2500 J/kg across TX. This
is all within the zone of higher PWATs.

The low/mid level flow is expected to remain rather unidirectional
and convergent through this afternoon. With peak heating,
additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the TX
panhandle into west-central OK and south-central KS. These storms
will capable of 1-2"/hr rates with some hourly totals of 2" likely
in localized spots. Over the course of the afternoon, localized
4-5" totals are possible.

Given recent heavy rainfall (previous 7-days rainfall running
400-600 percent of normal) and low FFGs (1-hr 1.5" or less), flash
flooding will be likely, particularly across portions of
west-central OK into south-central KS where HREF probabilities of
excessive rain are highest.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...LUB...MAF...OUN...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35599788
38299632 38299632
39379695 38709641 36999684 35309807 33590007
            32280143 32120227 33590231 38709897