Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0945
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 PM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Areas affected...Eastern KS...Southeast NE...Extreme Northwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082028Z - 090128Z

Summary...Line of thunderstorms slowly moving over saturated soils
will be capable of producing flash flooding through early evening
across eastern Kansas, far southeastern Nebraska, and extreme
northwest Missouri.

Discussion...Recent radar imagery from KTWX showed an uptick in
thunderstorm activity while GOES-East IR depicted cooling cloud
tops within the last hour. Recent RAP analysis depicted a pool of
2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE in a belt of high PWATs (1.5 to 1.7") and
high 850 mb moisture transport. In the low to mid levels, the flow
is unidirectional, suggesting some training and backbuilding of
storms is possible.

HRRR and other hi-res models show this activity will gradually
fill in and advance slowly eastward over the next few hours.
Hourly totals of 1.5 to 2.0" will be possible in localized
locations across eastern KS, far southeastern NE, and extreme
northwest MO, including the Kansas City metro area.

Given the recent heavy rainfall and wet soils in the area
(widespread 3-5" in past 24 hours and 600 percent of normal last 7
days), FFG is very low. As a result, any additional heavy rainfall
could lead to flash flooding, especially for urban sensitive
areas.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40719598 40439496 40169459 39529439 38609455
            37959513 37469608 37529682 38049698 39269685