Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0946
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
543 PM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Areas affected...West-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082143Z - 090343Z

Summary...In a corridor of strong upper level divergence and
moist, unstable air, thunderstorms developing this afternoon will
be capable of producing hourly totals of 1.5 to 2.0 inches and
possibly lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed strong
upper level low centered over the Four Corners region. Several
shortwaves were rounding through the flow, all within a large
broad area of enhanced upper level divergence. In the low to mid
levels, the airmass was moist and unstable, with a recent RAP
analysis showing SBCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg. Convection
has developed on the edge of a high PWAT axis (1.5 to 1.6"), near
a surface front analyzed across west central Texas.

With unidirectional flow in the low to mid levels and the enhanced
lift aloft, thunderstorms, IR imagery confirms the deep convection
developing within the last hour. Recent radar imagery shows
pockets of 1-hr rates exceeding 1.5" as several clusters of storms
drift northward.

Hi-res models indicate the axis of heaviest QPF will likey fall
across portions of west-central TX with some localized 3-4"
amounts possible. Recent heavy rainfall in some areas favors a
localized flash flood threat through early evening given the
intense rainfall rates and potential for repeating thunderstorms.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35220042 34389991 33070002 30850018 29480248
            32820199 34430135