Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0947
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
643 PM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Areas affected...Central OK...Southern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 082243Z - 090443Z

Summary...Several lines of thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall
converging over areas with very wet antecedent conditions will
likely lead to localized flash flooding this evening.

Discussion...A recent surface analysis showed a stationary
boundary across portions of north central Oklahoma into southern
Kansas late this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms, continuing
on and off for much of today, have increased in the last hour per
GOES-East IR imagery cloud tops and KVNX/KICT radar returns.

The area lies within a broad area of upper level divergence thanks
to an anomalous upper level low over the Four Corners region. A
couple shortwaves were lifting through, helping to enhance the
upper level lift. In the low to mid levels, there is considerable
moist and unstable air converging on the surface boundary, evident
by MUCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg in southern KS to around 2000
across central OK, all within a corridor 1.6-1.7" PWATS per latest
GPS TPW.

Convection currently going on will drift northward through the
evening hours. With some north-south oriented bands and the
unidirectional flow in the low/mid levels, some training and
repeating rounds of thunderstorms will be likely.

Hi-res models are keying on central OK and southern KS for heavy
rainfall this evening, where HREF probs of exceeding 1" in 1 hour
are highest. Hourly rain totals of 1 to locally 2" will be
possible in the strongest thunderstorm cores with some total
amounts 3-4" possible. And given the wet antecedent conditions in
place (1-hr FFG less than 1" in southern KS, less than 1.5" in
portions of OK), flash flooding will be likely this evening.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38709620 37969585 36209709 34409821 34569953
            36189994 37549917 38489787