Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0951
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 AM EDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Areas affected...Northern OK...Eastern KS...Northwest
MO...Southern/Central IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090530Z - 091130Z

Summary...Additional heavy showers and thunderstorms can be
expected overnight. Some flash flooding will be possible.

Discussion...Deep layer south-southwest flow continues across the
central Plains and Midwest around the eastern flank of a strong
upper trough and associated closed low over the Four Corners
region which is gradually edging out into the High Plains.

Plenty of anomalous moisture continues to stream north as a result
with PWATS of as much as 1.6 to 1.7 inches which is generally 2 to
2.5 standard deviations above normal.

All of this moisture and at least a weak degree of instability has
been focusing up along a southwest/northeast oriented stationary
front where there is an extensive axis of showers and a few
thunderstorms. The convection is being aided strongly though by
proximity of favorable right-entrance region jet dynamics which is
fostering some deeper layer ascent over the region.

Radar imagery is suggesting that there is a weak shortwave trough
approaching south-central KS which is embedded within the deeper
layer flow. This impulse in conjunction with the aforementioned
moisture and instability focused along and ahead of the front
should maintain a focus for showers and thunderstorms throughout
the remainder of the night from areas of especially eastern
KS/northwest MO on up across areas of southern and central IA.

Additional rainfall amounts of as much as 2 to 3 inches will be
possible through dawn, with some of the heavier totals likely
focused over eastern KS and northwest MO. Given the very wet
antecedent conditions and lower FFG values, some flash flooding
will be possible.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...
TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42769234 42459168 41459213 39859335 37769465
            36739541 36089618 35849718 36109774 36839806
            37849780 38579727 39309653 39889588 40829488
            41929405 42589332