Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0953
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
811 AM EDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Areas affected...North Central OK....South Central KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091210Z - 091810Z

Summary...Widespread moderate to locally heavy rain will move into
areas with very wet antecedent conditions, possibly leading to
some flash flooding this morning.

Discussion...Latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed
the highly anomalous upper level low across New Mexico, with
several shortwaves lifting northward Texas into Oklahoma. A
surface front remains nearly stationary across portions of OK and
KS where a steady feed of very moist and unstable air has fueled
showers and thunderstorms over the past couple of days. Finally,
latest GOES-East imagery showed some cloud top cooling over OK,
suggesting that convection is deepening this morning.

A recent mesoanalysis shows the MUCAPE gradient extends as far
north as southern KS where between 500-1000 J/kg exist. Strong 850
mb flow within the corridor of PWATS 1.8" is impinging on the
front.

Over the next several hours, hi-res models suggest some uptick in
convection is possible as storms move into portions of OK and
south-central and eastern KS. Hourly totals of 1 to locally 1.5"
will be possible. The highest HREF probs for heavy rain are across
north-central OK into south-central KS.

Given the extremely wet antecedent conditions across portions of
the area, where 1-hr FFG is less than 0.5" in places, flash
flooding will be possible. 

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39999531 37089488 35109815 35469959 36789995
            38549817