Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0958
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
440 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected...FL Panhandle...FL Big Bend...Far Southern
AL...Far Southwest GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100840Z - 101440Z

Summary...Outer rainbands of Hurricane Michael are arriving across
the FL panhandle and will become more intense over the next
several hours. Very heavy rainfall will be associated with this,
and some flooding or flash flooding will be possible through the
mid to late morning hours.

Discussion...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Michael continues to
advance northward early this morning toward the FL panhandle.
Outer rainbands with Michael are already beginning to move
onshore, and the latest GOES-16 30-second satellite imagery shows
several well-organized bands of convection lifting north and
northwest around the eastern flank of the storm within strongly
convergent low-level flow.

The convection is taking advantage of more than enough instability
that is pooled out across the eastern Gulf of Mexico with MUCAPE
values of 2000 to 3000 j/kg. The environment will be conducive
moving forward for some very strong convective bands to set up,
move inland, and train over the same area as large-scale forcing
and shear parameters increase over the northeast Gulf of Mexico
and inland over the FL panhandle. Expect there to be some added
low-level frictional convergence as the low-level wind field
around the northeast flank of Michael increasingly interacts with
land, and this will attempt to enhance the convection near and
just inland of the coast through the morning hours.

Expect rainfall amounts of as much as 2 to 2.5 inches/hr within
the stronger convective bands, and especially after 12Z. Rainfall
totals going through 15Z are expected in general to be as high as
3 to 5 inches. This will set the stage for flooding and flash
flooding concerns out ahead of the arrival of Michael's central
convection. Much heavier rains are expected just beyond this valid
period from late-morning through mid-afternoon as very strong
central convection arrives over the FL panhandle and moves well
inland over southeast AL and southwest GA in association with a
landfalling Hurricane Michael. Will continue to closely monitor.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31308600 31198524 30848433 30338361 29728320
            29438313 29318329 29658351 29938402 29858447
            29628512 30068573 30138602 30288633 30348679
            30368729 30498746 30768734 31118688