Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0960
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Carolinas...Far Southwest VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101424Z - 102000Z

Summary...Heavy rain will become more widespread across portions
of the Carolinas and far southwest Virginia into the afternoon
hours. With the potential for hourly rates of 1-2" and
training/repeating rounds, flash flooding will be possible.

Discussion...Highly anomalous moisture axis extends across
portions of the Carolinas, per the 12z CHS sounding which had a
PWAT of 2.29" (2-3 SD above normal). Recent GOES-East imagery has
shown cooling cloud tops across northeast SC and regional radar
depicts some heavy rain bands lifting northwest to north, with
some localized bands producing 1-1.5" hourly rates.

Over the next several hours, the airmass is expected to become
more unstable within a zone of upper level divergence across
portions of the Carolinas and southwest Virginia. The hi-res
models all paint heavy rain generally from northeast SC through
central/western NC into far southwest VA through 21z. With some
orographic/topographic enhancement, repeating heavy rain bands
will be possible. HREF probabilities of the heaviest rain are
across northeast SC, southwest NC and also along the spine of the
Appalachians of western NC and southwest VA, where some terrain
influence is likely. FFG isn't particularly low in these areas,
which lowers confidence in flash flooding, but the intense hourly
rates may produce some localized flash flooding.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37328059 35857931 34247767 32917947 34228134
            35308316 36378179 36618170