Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0961
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
137 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected...FL Panhandle...Southwest GA...Southeast AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101736Z - 102336Z

Summary...Heavy rain will continue to spread inland as Hurricane
Michael moves onshore the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall rates as
high as 3"/hr will be likely in the more concentrated bands near
the storm center. Rainfall totals 3-6" are expected through 7 PM
CDT, with additional heavy rain likely to occur after as the storm
moves further inland.

Discussion...Hurricane Michael continues to move inland on the
Florida Panhandle coast per latest NHC update, radar, and
satellite imagery. Several spiraling bands producing intense
rainfall rates as high as 2-3"/hr have been moving through the
area, most concentrated between TLH and Fort Walton Beach, and as
far inland as Dothan, AL and Thomasville, GA. Radar estimated
totals so far are as high as 3-5" across the FL Panhandle.

As the inner core of Michael moves inland, intense rainfall rates
as high as 3"/hr will be possible through the late afternoon.
Other spiraling bands of heavy rainfall will begin moving
northward, spreading into southeast Alabama and more portions of
southwest into central Georgia.

The combination of inner core convection and increasing convergent
rain bands will increase across portions of AL and GA and continue
for some time across FL Panhandle.

Hi-res model guidance has a good consensus showing the potential
for 3-6" with locally higher amounts possible through 7 PM CDT
across portions of the FL Panhandle, southeast AL, and southwest
GA. Heavier rain will begin to spread into central GA later this
afternoon but lesser amounts are expected there given its further
distance from the storm center.

With the rain that has already fallen and anticipated additional
totals, flash flooding will become increasingly likely through the
afternoon hours. 

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32978485 32788374 32248303 31928276 31068274
            29378310 29978375 30138409 29928465 29758493
            29688516 29878537 30058549 30158568 30348609
            30488616 30948649 31268676 32438610 32968552