Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0962
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected...SC...NC...Southwest VA...Far Southern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101944Z - 110130Z

Summary...A fetch of moisture off the Atlantic and in advance of
Hurricane Michael will continue to bring locally heavy rain to
parts of the Carolinas and southwest VA through this evening. With
some hourly rates exceeding 1.5", localized flash flooding may
occur.

Discussion...Strong moisture feed in advance of Hurricane Michael
and on the periphery of the subtropical ridge breaking down has
led to northwest-southeast oriented bands of locally heavy rain
across portions of SC into central/western NC. A recent RAP
analysis showed instability ranges from 1000-2000 J/kg across the
area within a plume of high PWATs (1.9-2.2"). GOES-East IR imagery
over the last few hours has shown occasional cooling cloud tops
across SC where convection has blossomed. Radar imagery from KCAE
shows hourly rates of 1 to 1.5" in a few elongated bands of
convection.

6-hourly MRMS QPE ending 18z showed two areas of heavy rainfall,
one across eastern SC into portions of south-central NC (1 to
locally 3") and then across northwest NC into far southwest (1 to
locally 2").

Hi-res models indicate current showers and thunderstorms will lift
northward further into central/western NC and spread across
portions of southwest VA through the remainder of the afternoon
and into the early evening hours. There's potential for additional
1 to locally 2 inches of rain, especially across portions of SC.
Also, with some orographic/terrain influences, HREF probabilities
hint at enhanced/heavier precipitation across western NC and
southwest VA, which is where the FFG is lower compared to the rest
of the area.

Given the recent heavy rainfall in places, some localized flash
flooding will be possible.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37888038 37537943 35587958 34397836 33347995
            34488116 35348285 35968207 36538149 37018143