Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0963
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected...Georgia...Eastern Alabama...Portions of SC/NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 102314Z - 110500Z

Summary...The core rain bands associated with Michael will track
inland this evening, impacting much of Georgia and parts of
Alabama this evening. By later this evening, heavy rain may begin
to affect portions of upstate SC and far southwestern NC. With
very intense rainfall rates near the storm center (as high as
3"/hr possible), flash flooding will be likely.

Discussion...Latest radar imagery shows the center of Hurricane
Michael now across southwest Georgia. The eyewall convection
remains very intense with hourly rates exceeding 2-2.5" with the
spiraling rain bands showing hourly rates as high as 1-1.5"
extending well away from the center.

Michael is forecast to track northeast through Georgia this
evening and with it bring a swath of very heavy rainfall. There is
good consensus in the latest hi-res models that show widespread
averages of 2-4" likely through 1 AM EDT with locally higher
amounts possible in a narrow corridor closest to the center track.
Portions of the Atlanta metro area are likely to be impacted, so
with the urban areas and lower FFG, flash flooding may be likely
there too.

With the approach of an upper trof, currently back west toward the
MS River, some enhancement and interaction will lead to downstream
rain bands developing across northern GA into portions of update
SC and far southwestern NC. This could result in
isolated/localized flash flooding, particuarly in the terrain
areas of the southern Appalachians.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35498233 34548227 33598196 32948200 32338236
            31878293 31108396 31248467 31478517 32038547
            33668545 35398334