Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0964...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
120 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Corrected for Hurricane to Tropical Storm Michael

Areas affected...Southeast U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110504Z - 110845Z

Summary...The core rain bands associated with Tropical Storm
Michael will continue to bring heavy to excessive rainfall farther
inland overnight as the system tracks to the northeast.  Heaviest
rainfall will mainly impact Georgia but also begin to spread into
portions of the western Carolinas late.  The most intense rainfall
rates will continue to be near the storm center with flash
flooding likely.

Discussion...Latest radar imagery shows the center of Tropical
Storm Michael now across south central Georgia. The eyewall
convection remains very intense with hourly rates exceeding 2-2.5"
with the spiraling rain bands showing hourly rates as high as
1-1.5" extending well away from the center.

Michael will continue to bring heavy to excessive rainfall along
its path during the overnight hours.  There is good consensus in
the latest hi-res models that show widespread averages of an
additional 2-4" likely through 5 AM EDT with locally higher
amounts possible in a narrow corridor closest to the center track.

The approach of an upper trof and surface cold front moving over
the western Ohio Valley may result in some enhancement and
interaction will lead to downstream rain bands developing across
northern GA into portions of update SC and far southwestern NC.
This could result in isolated/localized flash flooding,
particularly in the terrain areas of the southern Appalachians.

Bann

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...MRX...RNK...
TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36598245 36448176 35898192 35218206 34678179
            34148149 33548075 32828019 32148061 31758100
            31368168 31328251 31838323 32078435 32458513
            34518523 36238389