Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0975...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 AM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Corrected for Valid time period

Areas affected...North central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131218Z - 131818Z

Summary...Organized heavy precipitation likely to continue this
morning as the remnant circulation associated with Sergio moves
along the stationary frontal boundary over central Texas.

Discussion...Latest regional radars continue to show an organized
area of heavy rains pushing steadily eastward along and north of
the west to east oriented stationary frontal boundary over central
Texas.  The remnant surface to mid level circulation center
associated with Sergio continue to enhance lift over this boundary
with models showing a strong upper difluence signature through
this morning pushing eastward along and north of the front.  With
PW values expected to remain much above average...2.0-2.5+
standard deviations above the mean...along and north of this
front...confidence is high for continuation of the organized heavy
rain area given the above mentioned strong lift ahead of the
remnants of Sergio.

The simulated radars from the latest hi res guidance from 0000 utc
all show this organized area of heavy precipitation pushing
steadily eastward this morning.  Some typical biases seen with
these simulated radars in being underdone with the simulated
echoes...especially across north Texas this morning in the
arw...nmmb and nssl wrf. The 0600 utc nam conest is the farthest
north with its heavy precip axis over north Texas...having a
better depiction of the current radar here...although this model
is not doing as well farther south. The arw...nmmb and nssl wrf
and 0000 utc nam conest depict the farther south convection better
than the 0600 utc nam conest...but are poorer with the heavy rains
farther to the north.  These models suggest a farther south qpf
axis...closer to the higher cape values expected to expand
northward later this morning across central Texas. 

The expected progression to the east of this organized heavy rains
will likely keep hourly rates from being very heavy.  Max hourly
rainfall rates in the latest hi res guidance are in the 1.0-1.5"+
range which seems to be matching the latest dual pole estimates
from regional radars.  With soils showing high saturation
levels..as per the latest national water model...from heavy rains
earlier in the week...runoff issues  possible along and north of
this boundary as this organized heavy rains push east.

Oravec

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33909868 33839756 33529652 33129618 32639575
            32169563 31629561 31129575 30729606 30489618
            30349645 30269737 30349952 30550056 31140065
            32499976 33329998 33699985