Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0980
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 AM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140801Z - 141200Z

Summary...Flash flooding threat continues through the overnight
along and ahead of a cold front moving into the area.

Discussion...Rainfall rates of an inch per hour or more were
occurring over southeast Texas as of 0745Z. These types of
rainfall rates will continue to pose an additional threat of flash
flooding and worsen any on-going flooding through 12Z.

Despite the fact that cloud top temperatures have been warming
over the past two hours or so and area radars have shown a
decrease in the areal coverage of the heaviest rainfall, there is
still the potential for additional convective
flare-ups...especially over southeast Texas through 12Z as the
cold front moves into an airmass with Precipitable Water values in
excess of 1.75 inches and where values of CAPE around 1500 J per
kg are still being tapped by the low level flow south of the
front.

The risk of flash flooding will be greatest from repeat convection
and from cell training over areas already soaked.  Conditions
should be improving following frontal passage.

Bann

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31589461 31199396 30649497 30409589 30149670
            30409670 30649651 31189580