Graphic for MPD #0984

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0984
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
111 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Areas affected...Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160511Z - 160900Z

Summary...Additional showers and thunderstorms this evening will
continue to produce flash flooding, especially in areas of wet
antecedent conditions.

Discussion...The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery showed cold
cloud tops, with some additional cooling of cloud tops across the
Rio Grande Valley and toward the TX Hill Country late this
evening, as stronger right-entrance region jet dynamics arriving
across the region interact with a nose of elevated instability.
The heavier shower activity has been tending to focus within an
axis of MUCAPE values that were between 500 and 1000 j/kg.

Some weak embedded shortwave energy crossing the TX Big Bend
within the deep layer southwest flow ahead of an upper trough
amplifying over the Southwest U.S. should continue to help focus
and enhance rainfall rates a bit further over the next several
hours.

The latest hires model guidance favors some additional rainfall
amounts through the evening hours of as much as 1 to 3 inches with
isolated heavier amounts. Many areas of the TX Hill Country have
already seen plenty of heavy rainfall recently, and soil
conditions are very moist if not saturated. The additional
rainfall through most of the overnight hours will likely result in
some increased runoff and flash flooding.

Bann

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32689731 31689700 30629837 29519964 29480051
            30789991


Last Updated: 111 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018