Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0986
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Areas affected...Central to Northern Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160904Z - 161500Z

Summary...Additional showers and thunderstorms will continue into
the morning.  Given the wet antecedent conditions and persistent
rainfall, flash flooding will continue to be a concern.

Discussion...The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery showed cold
cloud tops, with some additional cooling of cloud tops, spreading
northward from central into northern Texas.  The right-entrance
region of a 250 mb jet was located over the region and was
providing favorable support aloft.

The area was located well into the cold air behind a surface cold
front, but the flow aloft was drawing in moisture above the cold
dome.  That, and the divergence located in the right-entrance
region of the uppet jet has been able to support and enhance a
broad area of rain with embedded showers/thunderstorms capable of
producing rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour or so.  The heavier
shower activity has been tending to focus within an axis of MUCAPE
values that were between 500 and 1000 j/kg.

While the rainfall rates are not overwhelming and storm-total
rainfall amounts have not terribly great, there is a risk of
additional flash flooding in regions of lower flash flood guidance
as well as the concern that additional rainfall will worsen any
on-going flooding.

As the jet continues to pull away to the north, rainfall rates
should be tapering off even though the area of rainfall may
persist into mid-morning.

Bann

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33049699 32769634 31829750 30529884 31219918
            32579799