Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1002
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1120 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...Mid-Mississippi into Lower Ohio River Valleys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010319Z - 010819Z

Summary...Hourly totals of 1 to locally 2 inches will be possible
through the early overnight hours across portions of the Mid-MS
and lower Ohio River Valleys. This additional rainfall on top of
earlier heavy rain may lead to localized flash flooding.

Discussion...Broad diffluent flow associated with a deep mid/upper
level low across Texas will continue to provide large scale lift
across the region into the overnight hours. At the surface, a low
was analyzed across Arkansas with a stationary boundary arched
northeastward along the Ohio River into Kentucky.

Rainfall over the last 12 hours has ranged from 3-4" across AR to
1-2" (locally near 3") across far southern IL, western/central KY.

A recent mesoanalysis shows MUCAPE values of 200-500 J/kg
remaining across the area and this should continue for a few more
hours before waning. Additionally, an axis of anomalously high
PWATs (1.4-1.5", 2-3 SD above the mean) will persist. Finally,
radar returns from the area show pockets of 1" rates continuing.

In general, as the surface low tracks northeast, there should be
an axis of locally heavy rain on top of areas that have received
heavy rain from earlier in the day. Additional totals of 1 to
locally 2 inches will be possible. This could cause localized
flash flooding concerns in areas with the lowest FFG values.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38428611 37348595 35588933 35119018 33479268
            34599350 36619093 37198985 38128773