Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1009
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1245 AM EST Mon Nov 05 2018

Areas affected...Coastal North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050544Z - 051144Z

Summary...Moderate to locally heavy rain overnight focused on the
North Carolina coastline could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Latest water vapor imagery and 500 mb heights showed
a pronounced shortwave over southeast Wisconsin with a secondary
wave across southeastern Kentucky. A plume of subtropical moisture
has been advecting northeastward ahead of this feature, evident by
the blended TPW product showing a steady increase since earlier
this evening. 00z JAX sounding indicated PWATs of around 2" was
common in the region, which is 2-3 SD above normal. Finally, a
coastal front has been pushing closer to the coastline of SC/NC,
which is introducing a narrow corridor of instability with little
to no CIN along the immediate coast. A recent RAP mesoanalysis
shows SBCAPE of 300-500 J/kg.

Over the next several hours, a focused and narrow area of heavy
rainfall is possible along the NC coastline. The last several runs
of the HRRR (along with other hi-res models) suggest potential for
2" (locally up to 4") possible through around 12z. Most of the
heaviest rain is likely to stay right along the coast of southeast
NC into the Outer Banks region. 

Mitigating factors limiting the confidence for more widespread
flooding concerns is the higher FFGs (1-hr around 2-2.5") and
somewhat drier than normal conditions the last 7 days.
Nonetheless, sensitive and urban areas with poor drainage impacted
by these intense rainfall rates could be susceptible to flash
flooding.

ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35907519 35267515 34597629 33847762 33757814
            33867845 33797842 33997864 34397810 35777590