Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1011
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 AM EST Tue Nov 06 2018

Areas affected...Southeast KY...Eastern TN...Northern AL...MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060631Z - 061031Z

Summary...A line of thunderstorms producing hourly totals of 1-2"
may lead to flash flooding into the early morning hours.

Discussion...An intense line of thunderstorms continues to track
across portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the TN Valley early
this morning. Recent IR imagery shows cloud tops continuing to
cool, especially across TN and northern MS/AL. The environment
remains supportive of intense thunderstorms, characterized by
surface-based instability of 500-1000 J/kg into middle TN. The 03z
OHX special sounding showed a PWAT of 1.54", well above normal and
near-record for early November.

Earlier observations validate radar estimates showing 1-hr totals
of 1-2" in locations (with some isolated higher amounts) across
TN/MS. With the low-level jet increasing to over 60+ kts in the
next few hours, there is still a window of opportunity with the
remaining instability for intense rainfall across the region.

While the line of storms is somewhat progressive, some individual
cells may slow or backbuild, leading to training. Hi-res models
indicate that an additional 1-2" (locally 3") will be possible
across portions of southeast KY, eastern TN down into northern AL
through 11z. As a result, localized flash flooding will be
possible.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...
OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37448373 36988265 35888330 35418417 33538670
            32508881 32409040 33288991 33998853 35098712
            36778500