Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1016
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

Areas affected...Western FL Panhandle...Southern AL...Southeast
Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122047Z - 130147Z

Summary...Repeat thunderstorms producing hourly totals of 1-2"
will be possible through late afternoon and may result in
localized flash flooding.

Discussion...A recent surface analysis shows a warm front has
pushed inland across southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle
with a weak low pressure off the coast of Louisiana and another
weak wave noted in southern MS. Showers and thunderstorms have
steadily pushed inland throughout the day, with localized areas
picking up 2-4" earlier per radar estimates and observations
around Pensacola and Mobile.

A mesoanalysis shows surface-based instability has reached
1000-1500 J/kg along the immediate coast and upwards to 500 J/kg
into southern Alabama. This is also in an area of high moisture,
characterized by PWATs of 1.7-1.9", or about 2 SD above the mean. 

Current radar imagery from the area shows several lines of
thunderstorms generally moving east-northeast, along the with the
mean flow according to the most recent RAP. This set ups the
potential for training convection.

Hi-res models are fairly consistent in showing an additional 1-2"
with locally 3" amounts through 01z. The greatest concern for
flash flooding through late afternoon or early evening lies across
southern Alabama and the western FL panhandle, particularly for
areas that have already received heavy rainfall today.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31618760 31488585 30608544 30048733 28708922
            29179007 30698887