Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1036
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1249 PM EST Sun Dec 02 2018

Areas affected...FL Panhandle...Southern GA...southern SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021749Z - 022349Z

Summary...Convection continues across the region within an axis of
anomalously high moisture. Repeating rounds of thunderstorms over
the extremely wet and saturated soils pose a flash flood threat
through late this afternoon.

Discussion...

A recent RAP analysis shows the best boundary layer convergence
will continue across the region through at least late this
afternoon. This area has largely unchanged in the last 18-24
hours, resulting in an axis of heavy rainfall. The best SBCAPE
resides across FL panhandle into far southern GA where values
approach 2000 J/kg. This is all within a zone of anomalously high
PWATs of 1.8-1.9".

Hi-res models are still struggling with the advancement of the
convection and have generally been too fast progressing it to the
east/northeast. But there's some better consensus for the highest
rain totals to fall through 00z across the central/western FL
panhandle and especially across southern GA and extreme southern
SC. Convection may not be as organized as earlier rounds across
the area, but a continued zone of moisture transport and mean flow
parallel to the storm motion favors potential for training and
backbuilding. Additional amounts of 2-4" look possible with some
hourly totals reaching 1-2" through 00z.

Observations and AHPS analysis shows widespread amounts of 3-5"
with local amounts 6-9" fell in the last 18-24 hours. This has
greatly lowered FFG values, with the some of the lowest guidance
across portions of the western FL panhandle into southern GA (0.5"
or less).

As a result, the expected additional rainfall over very saturated
soils will pose a flash flood threat for the area into the late
afternoon. There are suggestions that the heavy rainfall threat
could extend further into this evening and tonight, resulting into
additional flash flood issues. 

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32978150 32688004 32428051 29988286 30098401
            29718519 30308652 30328726 31088632 31858476