Graphic for MPD #1049

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1049
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 PM EST Sat Dec 08 2018

Areas affected...Central FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090452Z - 090852Z

Summary...Line of showers and thunderstorms tracking through the
Florida Panhandle will be capable of producing hourly totals  up
to 2". This heavy rainfall, falling on saturated soils due to
recent heavy rain events, could result in flash flooding.

Discussion...An area of low pressure tracking across the northern
Gulf of Mexico with its associated warm front draped just inland
has allowed a narrow axis of better instability to lift northward
into the central Florida Panhandle. With the compact 850 mb
forcing overrunning this boundary, there is a focused area of
strong moisture transport nosing in across central FL panhandle.
Recent heavy rain events have primed soils with 7-day averages
still running 400-600 percent above normal.

Hi-res models indicate that between 1-2" are likely with this line
of showers/storms through 09z with some localized amounts near 3"
possible.

Limiting factors for more widespread flooding or flash flooding
issues will be the progressive nature of this line with a sharp
cutoff in precipitation west to east, as well as the limited
instability. Nonetheless, given the antcedent conditions and
intense hourly rates possible, some localized flooding will be
possible into the early overnight hours.


Taylor

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31018596 30978481 30528383 30068387 29758466
            29698520 30098560 30248602 30428626


Last Updated: 1152 PM EST Sat Dec 08 2018