Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1067
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EST Wed Dec 26 2018

Areas affected...North Central TX into Central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262051Z - 270251Z

Summary...Convection continuing to develop ahead of a cold front
will be capable of producing hourly totals as high as 2" and may
pose a localized flash flood risk through 03z.

Discussion...As of 21z, regional radar shows widespread showers
and thunderstorms continuing in response to a plume of a higher
moisture (characterized by PWATs of 1.2-1.4") and 50-60 kt
convergent flow at 850 mb. Aloft, water vapor shows a distinct mid
level shortwave over southern New Mexico tracking eastward. Ahead
of this there is broad mid-upper level forcing for ascent.
Finally, at the surface, a recent analysis showed a low nearing
the Texas Panhandle with its associated cold front extending
southward toward the Mexico border.

With the mean flow aligning parallel to the storm motion (mostly
north-south), convection will continue to redevelop and
potentially train over the same areas over north central TX into
central OK into the early to mid evening hours. Instability is
expected to remain sufficient (SBCAPE as high as 1000 J/kg
possible) and this should keep the environment supportive for
heavy rainfall.

Recent totals per mesonet observations since convection started
earlier in the morning a corridor of 1-2" with a few localized
amounts near 3". With additional amounts of 2-3" and locally
higher amounts possible, this falling on top of areas that have
already picked up heavier rainfall today will increase the flash
flood risk into the early evening, despite the progressing line of
storms expected after 00z.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36559823 35289664 32569668 31319800 32529960
            34729958