Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
631 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 12Z Thu 19 Mar 2026 - 12Z Mon 23 Mar 2026


...Overview...

Mean ridging in the Bering will degrade by next weekend, while
troughing persists over the mainland and Gulf Coast. Multiple
rounds of shortwave energy will round the aforementioned ridge and
phase/reinforce the mid-level wave over the Gulf--gradually
amplifying it.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Models are in reasonably good agreement regarding the ridge-
trough pattern across the region late this week through next
weekend. The Euro and American suites were sufficient enough to
capture the 500mb pattern on days 4 and 5. The ensemble means are
favored through the rest of the period to account for
discrepancies in the different deterministic guidance with respect
to the timing and strength of the Gulf low.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Mean troughing over the mainland/Gulf with multiple rounds of
reinforcing shortwave energy will promote a prolonged period of
wet weather across the central mainland down through the Panhandle
late next week and through the weekend. Fortunately, the
magnitude of moisture associated with this troughing, and thus the
likelihood of this precipitation being hazardous, is low.

Cold air advection on the backside of the Gulf low will promote
high winds across western portions of the state over the next
week. The Seward Peninsula, St. Lawrence Island, Lower Kuskokwim
and the Alaskan Peninsula are all highlighted for hazardous high
winds beginning late this week.

A pressure gradient and transient Arctic shortwaves from should
generate enough wind to cause ground blizzard conditions across
eastern portions of the North Slope next Friday and Saturday.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html