Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
618 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 12Z Wed 19 Aug 2026 - 12Z Sun 23 Aug 2026

...Active Transitional Pattern Over the Next Week...


...Pattern Overview and Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

A complex and transitional upper flow pattern is on tap over the
next week as ongoing blocky flow breaks down and multiple systems
increasingly work toward and impact the state. Guidance shows a
reasonably similar larger scale evolution and the main emerging
threat signals, but varies more significantly with embedded system
differences and local focus through this forecast period. A broad
multi-model and especially ensemble mean/machine learning
guidance blend seems to mitigate variances consistent with
predictability to provide a decent forecast basis for messaging.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A cooled Interior/North Slope will see some scattered to terrain
focusing showers mid-later next week with uncertain northern
stream flow impulses in a wake of much more organized early next
week system passage. System timings are also uncertain to the
south, but most guidance brings focus from a moderately organized
system underneath from Bristol Bay/Alaska Peninsula through the
Gulf of Alaska Wednesday into Friday. The WPC Hazards Outlook
shows local WFO collaborated potential for terrain enhanced heavy
rainfall from Kodiak Island to SouthCentral Alaska, with lesser
amounts likely for the Southeast as the system loses influence.

Meanwhile upstream, there are growing guidance signals to develop
quite energetic flow out from northeast Asia through the Bering
Sea next week. Details remain quite varied, but energy advent may
manifest in genesis of a potent storm to impact the Mainland
heading into next weekend to monitor. This may support a threat
for enhanced winds and heavy rain initially for Western/Southwest
Alaska Friday into Saturday. Activity may spread over the
Interior and especially the southern Mainland over next weekend.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html