Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
724 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Valid 12Z Mon 6 Jul 2026 - 12Z Fri 10 Jul 2026

...Pattern Overview...

An omega block type pattern will likely be in place across the
Alaska domain for the beginning of the forecast period Monday.
This will be featured with an upper level ridge situated across
the central and northern mainland, and a pair of upper lows over
the southern Bering and the northern Gulf. Both of these lows
should make slow eastward progress through the middle of the
week, and the upper ridge gradually breaks down as an Arctic
trough amplifies north of the Arctic Coast.

...Guidance Evaluation...

Most of the 12Z deterministic guidance was in good general
agreement on the overall pattern across the domain for early next
week. The main exception to this was the 12Z CMC run, which is
faster with the surface/upper low over the Bering as it crosses
the Alaska Peninsula and then into the northern Gulf region, so
it was not preferred for Tuesday and beyond. A UKMET/ECMWF/GFS/AIFS
model compromise was used initially, followed by increasing
percentages of the ensemble means by the Wednesday to Friday time
period.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Isolated to scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms, are
likely across mainly the southern half of the mainland for the
beginning of the week. Showers and storms may increase in coverage
going into Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge axis breaks down,
with QPF trending higher for portions of the Interior compared to
yesterday's forecast. In terms of temperatures, warm conditions in
the 70s to lower 80s for much of the Interior and even extending
to portions of the North Slope are likely for Monday and into
Tuesday. Given the break down of the upper ridge, readings should
fall slightly towards the end of the week by about 5 degrees. For
the southern part of the state, highs in the 70s for the lower
elevations and 60s near the coast.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html