Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
654 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 12Z Wed 04 Feb 2026 - 12Z Sun 08 Feb 2026


...Heavy precipitation for Southcentral into Southeast Alaska
Tuesday-Wednesday...

...Overview...

An overall blocky pattern will be in place for the extended
period as ridging builds into Mainland Alaska from western Canada.
South of the ridge axis, an initial larger upper low in the Gulf
will support heavy precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday for the
Panhandle and Southern Coast regions, but a series of lows
rotating through the flow will allow for continued onshore flow
and generally unsettled conditions into next weekend. Meanwhile,
arctic energy may extend into the North Slope, while a tight
pressure gradient at the surface leads to breezy conditions for
ground blizzard potential. A building ridge will support generally
above to well above normal temperatures for the vast majority of
the state.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

On the large scale, the guidance shows pretty good agreement on a
blocky pattern for next week, anchored by a building ridge over
the Mainland. A variety of surface lows look to rotate through the
Gulf and towards the Southern Coast, but the details regarding
timing and strength remain highly uncertain. Guidance does show
some better agreement on a large upper low south of the Aleutians,
but continue to struggle with individual vorts of energy rotating
around it. This should break down by mid week as additional
energy, stemming from broad troughing to the west, moves into the
region. This should allow for a continuous stream of onshore flow,
keeping the weather across southern regions and the Panhandle
generally unsettled through the week. The specifics on
precipitation amounts and intensity remain uncertain for the
latter half of next week. The only notable outlier was the GFS
which was different with handling another shortwave that lifts
into the Gulf late week. The GFS pulled this low/shortwave more
eastward towards the Northwest U.S. vs the majority of guidance
northward towards the Southern Coast. This seems to be related to
the strength of the ridge over the Western U.S. into western
Canada and the Alaska Mainland. The WPC forecast for today used a
non-GFS blend of the deterministic guidance for Days 4 and 5, with
increasing weighting of the ensemble means through Day 8 to help
mitigate and smooth out some of the more uncertain aspects of the
forecast.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

In the beginning of the week, a long fetch of increasing moisture
will be streaming northward toward the southern coastline in the
form of an atmospheric river ahead of a deeper low slowly tracking
northward Tuesday-Thursday before weakening. During this period,
several inches of rain and inland snow is expected from the
Panhandle and across much of the Southern Coast region. A Heavy
Precipitation hazard remains in place on the Day 3-7 Hazards Map.
Some gusty winds are possible with this system toward Cook Inlet
and Prince William Sound, but at this point do not look to reach
hazardous criteria.

Farther north, areas of snow showers may increase in coverage
across the Interior into next week. A tight pressure gradient
along the Arctic Coast will also allow for ground blizzard
conditions in that region.

Warmer than average temperatures will gradually expand northward
with time next week with the majority of Alaska being above
average (both morning lows and afternoon highs) by later next
week. Some locations could be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with
highs for southern locations above freezing all of next week.
Though temperatures will trend warmer, they may still remain near
or below normal for parts of the Interior and the Brooks Range.
Temperatures may begin to trend slightly cooler by/around next
Sunday as the upper ridge tries to weaken a bit.


Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html