Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
514 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Valid 12Z Fri 13 Nov 2026 - 12Z Tue 17 Nov 2026


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Latest guidance solution clustering is better than average
through medium-range time scales, bolstering forecast confidence.
Favor a simple composite of reasonably compatible guidance of the
12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian and their ensembles that seems to offer
a solid forecast basis for consistent products and messaging. A
composite tends to mitigate lingering smaller scale system
variances as consistent with individual predictability.

...Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The southern coast of Alaska and the Southeast will remain
unsettled and wet this period with rounds of precipitation given
multiple pieces of upper level energy and surface lows set to
split to the south of the state and then lift from the Northeast
Pacific to the Gulf of Alaska. A general offshore storm track may
limit onshore precipitation amounts and intensity. Gusty winds
should wrap back across the Panhandle with system passages, but do
not appear to reach hazards criteria. Storm energy by early next
week should have a moist extratropical connection to current West
Pacific Typhoon Cempaka to monitor for growing threat potentials.

Meanwhile, wrapping flow around a weakening closed upper
trough and surface system lingering near the Northern Bering Sea
and across the Bering Strait Friday into the weekend and with
possible moderate Bering Sea development into early next week may
act to continue daily wintry precipitation chances with flow into
Southwest Alaska and West/Northwest Alaska.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html