Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
437 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 12Z Mon 29 Dec 2025 - 12Z Fri 02 Jan 2026

...Heavy snow followed by very heavy rains for portions of the
Alaska Panhandle from the 28th into the 30th...

...Strong gales with gusts to storm force for parts of the
Aleutians and near/offshore portions of the western and southern
Alaska...

...Frigid conditions for the eastern portions of the state slowly
ease...


...General Overview...
An evolution back towards a more amplified upper level pattern
is expected, downstream of a deep layer cyclone near southeast
Russia which waxes and wanes. However, this should result in a
northwest-southeast oriented ridge between eastern Asia and
Hawai'i that bridges across portions of the Aleutians and Bering
Sea, and favors a mid-level weakness over mainland Alaska. As
shortwaves round the western side of the weakness, an upper
low/trough across portions of the northeast Pacific and Gulf of
Alaska should edge eastward. This pattern favors wet conditions
for the Alaska Panhandle, with both heavy snow and heavy rains
anticipated from the short range period through the 30th.
Moderately strong gap winds are also expected to pivot around
portions of southwest AK, the Aleutians/AK Peninsula, and south-
central AK.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
The latest guidance is similar in its handling of the expected
upper level pattern close to mainland AK, with details,
particularly a potential cyclone near the Aleutians next week
remaining the biggest source of uncertainty. A general
deterministic model blend early with increasing amounts of the
ECMWF/NAEFS means late accounts for the uncertainty well. The 19z
NBM seemed reasonable, which was augmented with some of the 12z
ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean solutions. Its QPF was also increased a
bit over the AK Panhandle (30%) to maintain better day- to- day
continuity.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
The main weather headline with be the heavy snow forecast for
portions of the southeast AK and the northern AK Panhandle with
over a foot of snow anticipated. Warm air advection to the south shifts
the precipitation type of heavy rains for southern and central
sections of the Panhandle, outside of terrain at the international
border with Canada. In places where heavy snow in the short range
period is followed by heavy rainfall, flooding would be augmented
by snowmelt. General precipitation amounts of 4-8" with local
totals around 12" are expected. Precipitation should slowly wind
down after the 30th, lingering into the beginning of 2026.

Otherwise, brutally cold conditions across east-central AK will
slowly ease next week. Apparent temperatures/wind chill values
fall below -50F across across the eastern Interior from the short
range period into the 29th before slowly modifying. Temperatures
will be far more variable across western and northern AK in the
vicinity of fronts passing through, which could bring bouts of
light to moderate snow. Episodes of enhanced gap winds (gale
force gusting into storm force) are expected on the backside of
the Gulf low rotating around from southwest to south- central AK.
Gale to storm- force winds -- possibly hurricane-force in and
near volcanic peaks -- across portions of the Aleutians and AK
Peninsula will ease as the Gulf of AK/northeast Pacific cyclone
edges eastward.

Roth


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html