Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
753 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 12Z Tue 28 Jul 2026 - 12Z Sat 01 Aug 2026


...Overview...

At the start of the forecast period Tuesday, an upper/surface low
will be passing Kodiak Island and vicinity, spreading
precipitation across the Alaska Range to the southern coast and
colder than average temperatures to the north where troughing is
forecast to linger. This low will spin over the Northeast Pacific
through much of the week and bring periodic light precipitation to
Southeast Alaska. An arctic trough could bring a round of
precipitation to northern Alaska for midweek. Upstream, an upper
ridge is forecast to shift from the eastern Bering into
southwestern Alaska through next week and warm up temperatures.
This ridge should be pushed east by energy moving from Kamchatka
through the Bering Sea as the week progresses.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Model guidance is rather agreeable with the pattern described
above. There are some minor timing/placement differences with the
first low as it moves into the Northeast Pacific. Namely, the
ECMWF/GFS are a bit west of the CMC and AIFS/AIGFS through the
latter half of the week, and the details could affect amounts of
precipitation in Southeast. A weak trough axis should come through
the North Slope around midweek and push a cold front across, and
then the front should meander with some slight model differences
in placement. The pattern of ridging coming into at least the
southern part of the state and troughing moving through the Bering
Sea show good consensus as well. One model difference is that the
12Z CMC brings some arctic energy southward into late week and
suppresses the ridge, which seems to be an outlier among other
dynamical and the AI guidance.

With overall good model agreement, the WPC forecast was able to
use a multi-model blend for the forecast, with some small
inclusion of the ensemble means for Days 6-8 to smooth out
individual model discrepancies.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Precipitation chances are forecast to linger across the Alaska
Range and Southcentral Alaska into Tuesday before the low pushes
farther into the Northeast Pacific. Upslope areas should see the
heaviest totals. These regions should dry out into midweek as the
ridge moves in, with just a few diurnally driven scattered showers
possible. Periodic precipitation is forecast for Southeast as
moisture streams in ahead of the low, but amounts should be pretty
modest. Meanwhile a cold front will provide support for a round
of precipitation for the North Slope and Brooks Range around
Wednesday, with lighter amounts possibly continuing into later
week. This will mostly be rain, but snow is possible in the
highest peaks. The Aleutians can expect rain into Tuesday, and
then rain chances should gradually spread eastward in the
Aleutians for the latter part of the week in the vicinity of the
next incoming low.

Cooler than average temperatures are expected to continue into
Tuesday across the Arctic Plains, Brooks Range, and eastern
Mainland with the trough overhead, though moderated from the
chilly short range period. Cooler temperatures could persist in
the Brooks Range and vicinity through Wednesday-Thursday, while
southwestern areas warm up under the influence of the ridge aloft.
Slightly warmer than average temperatures should continue to
spread northeastward over most of the state for late week, which
brings highs in Interior areas generally from the 60s into the
70s. Southeast Alaska should be within a few degrees of average.


Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html