Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
610 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 12Z Mon 15 Jun 2026 - 12Z Fri 19 Jun 2026


...Rainy and windy from Southcentral to Southeast Alaska early
next week...


...Overview with Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

There's agreement on a closed mid-level low slowly propagating
from the AKPen across the Gulf and into the Panhandle next week.
Ridging over the far western Aleutians early next week will shift
into the AKPen and Bering by midweek. Models are much more
uncertain about the amplitude and orientation of this ridge
feature. A general model blend consisting of the available
deterministic and Ai guidance was used on day 5. This was followed
by gradual increases to ensemble means in the blend to account
for the more drastic spread displayed by the deterministic models.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Most of the impactful weather is expected to occur this
weekend into early next week over southern/coastal portions of
the state. A deep occluded low pressure system will send a potent
surface front into the Gulf Coast of Alaska this weekend. Warm air
and anomalous moisture will accompany the approaching front and
spread heavy rainfall from the Kenai down to northern portions of
the Panhandle, before weakening and shifting the moisture plume
into Southeast on Monday. High winds will impact much of the
Alaska Range as well between Saturday and Monday, where ongoing
fire weather concerns could be exacerbated. Temperatures will
remain average to above average over much of the region due to
the Gulf system pumping a relatively warm and moist airmass into
the state.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html