Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
759 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 12Z Fri 17 Oct 2025 - 12Z Tue 21 Oct 2025


...Active pattern continues to bring high winds across the
Aleutians to western mainland Alaska this weekend into early next
week...


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Global models continue to depict an active synoptic pattern with
more deep and fast-moving cyclones to move through the Aleutians
and into southwestern Alaska. The medium-range forecast period
should begin with the weakening phase of a deep cyclone engulfing
the southern half of Alaska. Models have generally settled into a
solution that splits the cyclone into two centers, with the one
tracking eastward into the Gulf of Alaska as the main center,
while another center moves northeastward into southwestern Alaska.
Thereafter, the entire cyclonic circulation breaks apart over the
high terrain of southern mainland Alaska.

Meanwhile, models show general agreement on a weaker cyclone to
track near or just south of the Aleutians into Friday. The ECMWF
favors a track closer to the islands in contrast to a more
southern track shown by the GFS and the intermediate solutions by
the CMC. This low is then absorbed by a stronger cyclone further
offshore which originated from a typhoon. Models today are showing
a faster trend for this cyclone to move toward British Columbia
this weekend.

Across the Aleutians, models continue to show decent agreement on
the arrival of the next deep cyclone this next weekend. Ensemble
means from the EC, GEFS, and CMC generally place the cyclone
center just south of the central Aleutians early on Sunday, which
is then followed by yet another deep cyclone on Monday right on
the heels of the former. Ensemble means then merge the two
cyclones into a giant vortex centered over the eastern Bering Sea
by Tuesday morning. Nevertheless, it appears that the terrain of
mainland Alaska would favor splitting this huge cyclone into two
centers--one over the Bering Sea and another over the Gulf of
Alaska.

The WPC forecast package for Alaska was based on the consensus of
40% from the 12Z ECMWF/00Z and 12Z EC mean, 40% from the 12Z
GFS/GEFS, and 20% from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean, with higher
percentages from the ensemble means for Days 7 and 8. Overall,
this blend yielded a surface isobaric pattern very similar to
yesterday's WPC forecast package.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Impacts from the next deep cyclone of concern will likely
winding down on Thursday with winds and precipitation along the
Gulf coast to northern Panhandle steadily taper off into Friday.
Thereafter, a quick-moving cyclone associated with a former
typhoon could bring a period of enhanced winds and precipitation
across the southern portion of the Alaska Panhandle on Saturday.

Also by next weekend, high winds are anticipated across the
Aleutians given continued model indications on the arrival of the
next deep cyclone. Precipitation amounts have also increased for
the central Aleutians but not high enough to warrant a heavy rain
area. Meanwhile, the High Wind area for all of Aleutians to South
Central for this weekend has been extended into next Monday on
WPC's Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook map. Elsewhere, only light amounts
of high-elevation snow and low- elevation rain are expected to
reach farther north across the northern half of Alaska in
association with the remnants of the midweek Aleutian cyclone.

Temperature-wise, persistent southwesterly flow across the Alaska
domain will keep temperatures above normal for much of the state
on Friday before a cooling trend brings below normal temperatures
for the high terrain of Brooks Range and Alaska Range by the
weekend into early next week.

Kong




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html