Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
747 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025


Valid 12Z Sun 22 Jun 2025 - 12Z Thu 26 Jun 2025


***Very warm conditions continue across central and eastern
 portions of the Interior into the weekend***


...General Overview...

The weekend will have a rather amplified upper level pattern in
place across the Alaska domain, with a broad upper low centered
over the general vicinity of the southern Bering, and an upper
ridge extending from northwestern Canada to the central/eastern
mainland. This will result in continued anomalous warmth for much
of the Interior with highs in the low to middle 80s for the lower
elevations. The Bering closed low/trough makes a little more
eastward progress going into early next week, and this will tend
to displace the ridge axis some to the northeast and potentially
evolve into a closed upper high over the Yukon territory, and a
slight cool-down across most of the mainland. A couple of
weak to moderately strong disturbances cross the North Pacific,
but they don't appear to be all that impactful at this time.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The 12Z model guidance suite features very good synoptic scale
agreement on Sunday into early Monday and therefore a multi-
deterministic model blend suffices as a starting point in the
forecast process. The GFS becomes a stronger solution by Tuesday
with a low developing just south of the Aleutians, and maintains
this difference going through the middle of the week. Therefore,
the ensemble means were gradually increased to about half by next
Thursday, whilst decreasing the contribution from the GFS owing to
the differences noted across the North Pacific.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The main thing making weather headlines will be the continued
above average temperatures across much of the state, with a
particular focus across the central and eastern portions of the
Interior. The highest readings are likely across the Yukon Flats
region through early next week, but now is just below hazards
criteria and after consultation with the local forecast offices,
the hazardous heat heat has been removed from the WPC hazards
graphic. There will also be isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms that develop across mainly eastern portions of the
Interior this weekend. More widespread showers and storms are
possible going into Tuesday and Wednesday as a frontal boundary
slowly sinks southward and intercepts the warm airmass across the
eastern Interior. More seasonable conditions are expected near
the southern coast and the larger cities, with highs generally in
the 50s and 60s.

Hamrick




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html