Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
714 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Valid 12Z Mon 13 Apr 2026 - 12Z Fri 17 Apr 2026


...Pattern Overview...

A closed mid-level low centered over the Gulf will shift into the
Southeast and British Columbia early next week. Meanwhile, mean
troughing over Kamchatka will expel shortwave energy into the
Bering and Aleutians. This energy will likely embed within a
broad upper ridge stationed over the western mainland mid-to-
late next week.


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Models are in reasonably good agreement on the synoptic evolution
of the mid-level pattern during the medium range period. A
general model blend consisting of the available deterministic and
Ai guidance was sufficient enough to capture the amplitude and
positioning of the closed low moving through the Southeast early
next week.

Uncertainty increases with respect to timing and amplitude of a
mid-to-late week shortwave energy embedded within the broader
ridge over western Alaska. Some deterministic models were included
in the days 7 and 8 blends to account for the missing signal of
embedded troughing in the ensemble means. The ensembles have an
amplified ridge over western Alaska, while the deterministic
guidance have a much more suppressed ridge favoring zonal flow and
embedded shortwave energy.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A deep Gulf low pressure system spreads rain and snow showers
across portions of the Alaska Range, Southcentral and the
Southeast on Monday. Gusty gap winds are anticipated to develop on
the backside of the low pressure system, from Kodiak through Cook
Inlet and into the Kenai Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday.
Meanwhile, another system emerges out of Kamchatka, spreading
rain showers over the Aleutians on Monday then spreading into the
Lower Yukon/Kuskokwim on Tuesday and Wednesday. Precip works its
way inland over Southcentral Alaska by Thursday.

Temperatures remain above average over northern portions of the
state throughout the medium range, while being below average over
portions of the Yukon Flats and Eastern Interior. The rest of the
region will be around average for this time of year.


Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html