THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


CARIBBEAN FORECAST DISCUSSION




TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2019

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM MAR 18/12 UTC: A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS INITIALIZED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMAIN...WITH AXIS
SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS-SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
LATER TODAY. ON TUESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO-CENTRAL AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OVER A RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS IT MEANDERS
EAST...THIS WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WILL DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...WITH AXIS
TRAILING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO VERACRUZ/EASTERN MEXICO. ON
TUESDAY...THE FRONT SURGES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN/SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO...AND ON WEDNESDAY IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS-CENTRAL CUBA WHILE TRAILING
TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN-NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE BROAD POLAR TROUGH
TO THE NORTH IS TO THEN INDUCE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH AXIS TO EXTEND NORTH FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA TO EASTERN CUBA.

AS IT MEANDERS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...THIS WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON TUESDAY THIS
INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM...WHILE ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. AS THE FRONT SURGES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA EARLY IN
THE CYCLE THIS IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM...INCREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM
ON TUESDAY. THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE  FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
CENTRAL CUBA...WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. ON TUESDAY THIS INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. ON WEDNESDAY...OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS-EASTERN
CUBA...THIS WILL THEN SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS TO THEN ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS JAMAICA...TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. ON THE
ANDEAN REGION OF COLOMBIA THIS IS ALSO TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION...TO INITIALLY FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE ON TUESDAY EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY THIS DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN
A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW... PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IS TO THEN CLUSTER
ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS/ISLAS DE LA BAHIA-CENTRAL
GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN BELIZE ON WEDNESDAY...TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST ANCHORS ON A CLOSED
HIGH OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH MID LEVEL AXIS ENVELOPING THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLES. UNDER PRESSURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THIS
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM THE WEST. LATER ON
TUESDAY IT IS TO THEN CONFINE TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...WHILE CENTERING ON A HIGH JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ON WEDNESDAY THE GLOBAL MODELS FORESEE THE FURTHER
EROSION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO THEN BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. INITIALLY THIS IS TO FAVOR
AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMAIN...WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE LIES TO THE SOUTH...WITH UPPER
LEVEL AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WHILE
ORIGINATING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
TO VENT THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA.
ADDITIONALLY...OVER AMAZONIA TO THE SOUTH...EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE CAUCA VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH ACCUMULATION
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ON TUESDAY THIS INCREASES TO
20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. OVER COSTA RICA-WESTERN
PANAMA...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES/TRADE WIND SURGES FROM 00 UTC:
INITIAL 24    36    48    60    72    84    96    TYPE     SOF
46W     50W   54W   56W   59W   62W   65W   69W    EW      13N

AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 46W AND SOUTH OF 13N...WITH
AXIS  ENTERING FRENCH GUIANA LATER TODAY...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER
GUYANA/EASTERN VENEZUELA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON WEDNESDAY.

CHINCHILLA...IMN (COSTA RICA)
SANCHEZ...AAC (PANAMA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)




Last Updated: 228 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2019