TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EST THU NOV 15 2018

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM NOV 15/12 UTC: POLAR TROUGH IS LIFTING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EASTERN USA. THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING THE TROUGH IS TO PULL FARTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. A NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS TO THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS
MEXICO-THE GULF/SOUTHERN USA. THE TROUGH SUSTAINS A SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS FLORIDA-THE YUCATAN/SOUTHERN MEXICO. LATER TODAY IT IS TO
MEANDER OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-WESTERN CUBA WHILE TRAILING
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO BELIZE-NORTHERN GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN
STATES OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MEANWHILE FAVORING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. LATER DURING THE WEEKEND...AS IT LOSES UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...TRAILING END IS TO RETROGRESS ACROSS BELIZE/GUATEMALA
INTO THE YUCATAN/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A PREFRONTAL
SHEAR LINE TO THE EAST WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO COSTA RICA
LATER TODAY. ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY THIS RETROGRESSES TO NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. THIS BOUNDARY IS TO THEN BECOME ILL DEFINED
LATER DURING THE WEEKEND. ALSO...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS TO ALSO
EXTEND NORTH FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS FRONTAL
CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM EARLY IN THE CYCLE...DECREASING TO 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM ON FRIDAY. OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS THE FRONTAL
NORTHERLIES ARE TO TRIGGER  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50-75MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 150-250MM/DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE ON
FRIDAY-SATURDAY EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 35-70MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 100-175MM. ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 20-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. SHEAR LINE
CONVERGENCE OVER COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA AND SAN ANDRES/ISLA DE
PROVIDENCIA WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM. ON FRIDAY THIS DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ACROSS NORTHEAST HONDURAS THIS IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM ON SATURDAY. OVER
JAMAICA THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS ENVELOPING THE
ATLANTIC BASIN WHILE CENTERING AT 500 HPA ON A CLOSED HIGH NEAR
28N 50W. AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO
RICO THIS IS TO SUSTAIN AN ELEVATED TRADE WINDS CAP. THIS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO DELAY THE ONSET OF DEEP DIURNAL CONVECTION...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH A
RIDGE IS TO DOMINATE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AT 250 HPA
A TUTT IS TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING
THE WEEKEND. THIS IS TO FAVOR AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN/ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE
LEEWARD-VIRGIN ISLES EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY. OVER PUERTO RICO INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. ON
FRIDAY-SATURDAY THIS DECREASES TO MAXIMA OF 15MM.

ANOTHER TUTT TO THE EAST CENTERS ON A CLOSED LOW OVER THE HAITIAN
PENINSULA. THIS EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW...AND AS SUCH IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
WEEKEND. EARLY IN THE CYCLE IT IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS
HISPANIOLA-SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/THE TURKS AND CAICOS...TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. AS THE TUTT
WEAKENS THIS GRADUALLY DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM
ON SATURDAY. ACROSS WESTERN-NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY. OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VENEZUELA TO EASTERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GUIANAS-TRINIDAD AND THE GRENADINES...WHERE ITCZ
RELATED CONVERGENCE...AS ENHANCED BY AN ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE...
IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
THROUGH SATURDAY THIS DECREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES/TRADE WIND SURGES FROM 00 UTC:
INITIAL 24    36    48    60    72    84    96    TYPE     SOF
NONE

SERNA...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
TEJADA...AAC (PANAMA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)