THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


CARIBBEAN FORECAST DISCUSSION




TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2022

NOTE TO ALL USERS: THE FULL BULLETIN WILL BE AVAILABLE ONLINE
AGAIN STARTING MONDAY JULY 11. ON THE WEEK OF TUESDAY JULY
05-08...WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION OF
THE BULLETIN.

FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 01 JULY 2022 AT 18 UTC:

TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
TYPE INIT SOF 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12
TW    40W 09N   43W   46W   49W   51W   54W   57W   60W   63W
TW    58W 17N   62W   65W   68W   71W   75W   78W   81W   85W
TW    63W 10N   66W   69W   72W   76W   80W  DISS            
EW    97W 10N  100W  103W  106W  DISS                       
EW   101W 11N  106W  108W  110W EXITS                       

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 40W. ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL BE OUT OF CONTINENT. ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN EASTERN
VENEZUELA...GUYANA...SURINAME...FRENCH GUIANA AND THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF BRAZIL.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 58W. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH POSSIBLE SQUALLY WEATHER IN
NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN ITS SOUTHERN
PART. IT WILL ALSO FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA AND A MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN GUYANA...SURINAME...FRENCH
GUIANA...NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN PART OF BRAZIL. ON
SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN NORTHERN
GUYANA AND PORTION OF FAR EASTERN VENEZUELA WHILE IT WILL FAVOR A
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SOUTHERN AND THE REMAINING AREA OF EASTERN
VENEZUELA AND ITS SOUTHERN PART. ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN SOUTHERN CUBA...A MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PUERTO
RICO...A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN HISPANIOLA...A MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN
JAMAICA...A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN PANAMA AND NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
AND A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND FROM NORTHEASTERN
TO SOUTHWESTERN PART OF COLOMBIA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 63W. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA...NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA.IT WILL ALSO FAVOR A MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA. ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND A MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN NICARAGUA INCLUDING THE
PROVIDENCIA ISLAND.IT WILL ALSO FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN COSTA
RICA AND THEN DISSIPATE LATER ON.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 97W. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND A MAXIMA OF
20-40MM ALONG ITS WESTERN COASTAL AREA. ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
MEXICO.IT WILL ALSO FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM NEAR SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL AREAS OF MEXICO AND A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN ITS
NORTHEASTERN AREAS.
ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF

AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 101W. ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THE WAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE CONTINENT


DIAWARA...WPC (USA)




Last Updated: 305 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2022