TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1240 PM EST FRI DEC 08 2023

FORECAST BULLETIN 08 DEC 2023 AT 1740 UTC: IN THE MID-LEVELS...A
RIDGE CENTERS OVER HISPANIOLA BUT EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
SLOWLY TO CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY...AS A POLAR
TROUGH PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE...EXPECT ENHANCEMENT OF THE TRADE WIND CAP TO
CONTINUE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN.

A LONG SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE
GREATER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ALONG 21N
65W...INAGUA...CENTRAL CUBA. BY SATURDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ALONG
20N 60W...TURKS AND CAICOS. AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL PUSH THE TAIL OF
THE FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD AFTERWARDS. ALTHOUGH THE THERMAL GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...IT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE
WEAKENING FRONT IS FORECAST ALONG THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO...NORTHEAST HISPANIOLA. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO PRESENT
ON FRIDAY...AND BY THE EVENING IT IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CENTRAL BELIZE. YET...IT IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN THE
NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE IN JAMAICA...NORTHERN HAITI AND
SOUTHEAST CUBA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. IN BELIZE EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO...MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN NORTHEAST HISPANIOLA
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE BAHAMAS.

A POTENT POLAR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY ON
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS FORECAST ALONG SOUTH
TEXAS...CENTRAL COAHUILA...SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY. BY SUNDAY EVENING IT
IS FORECAST ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA...NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN CHIAPAS...CHIVELA PASS...CENTRAL
MEXICO. NOTE THAT A STRONG NORTES EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT. THIS IMPLIES SURFACE WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 45KT OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERACRUZ ON SUNDAY...AND A
TEHUANTEPECER LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO EXCEED 70KT AT 925 HPA
DURING SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...EXPECT ENHANCEMENT TO
DEVELOP VERY EARLY ON SUNDAY ALONG CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL AND GULF COAST. BY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM FROM NORTHERN VERACRUZ INTO CENTRAL
VERACRUZ AND NORTHERN OAXACA. THE STRONG MOIST NORTHERLIES WILL
FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS EAST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
TERRAIN. FROM SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/TABASCO/CAMPECHE INTO NORTHWEST
GUATEMALA EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. FRMO
PETEN/CENTRAL BELIZE INTO THE ENTIRE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.

A MOST PLUME IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ALONG
THE SOUTHERHN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. ON
FRIDAY...THE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT POSITIVELY WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AND FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND NORTHERN GUYANA. NOTE THAT COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS OCURRING IN AN ISOLATED MANNER. EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN THE ABC...THE MOIST PLUME
WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN
THE ABC/NORTHERN VENEZUELA/TRINIDAD...AND IN THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES. ON SUNDAY...THE PLUME IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
AMERICA...TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
NICARAGUA INTO NORTHERN COSTA RIDA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM INLAND.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
FAVORING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE GUIANAS AND MOST OF VENEZUELA
ON FRIDAY...WHERE EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN FRENCH GUIANA DUE TO ITCZ
CONVERGENCE. AS THE MOIST PLUME MEANDERS WESTWARD...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
COLOMBIAN ORINOQUIA ON SATURDAY...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET IN
THE ORINOQUIA REFORMS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND IN VENEZUELA AND THE
COLOMBIA ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE

GALVEZ...WPC (USA)