Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
136 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Forecast Bulletin 14 August 2026 at 1735 UTC:

Broad areas of heavy rainfall are expected from Central America to
Orinoquia throughout the next three days, associated with the
passage of a series of tropical waves and strong upper-level
divergence.
Significant rainfall accumulations are expected across the Lesser
Antilles by Saturday with the arrival of a tropical wave.
Isolated areas of substantial rainfall are forecast across Mexico
and northern Central America due to the North American Monsoon
influence and tropical wave passages.

Mexico and Northern Central America . . .
An upper-to-mid-level low is currently centered over northeastern
Mexico while an upper-level ridge extends over the western coast.
Their interaction will favor upper-level divergence across western
to eastern Mexico today. Another region of upper-level divergence
will develop over northwestern Mexico due to the cut-off
upper-level low. Moderate to strong lower-level easterly winds
will advect moisture, while local topography supports moisture
convergence. This synoptic pattern will sustain isolated areas of
convective rain across the northwest and from western Mexico to
northern Veracruz today. A tropical wave moving into the region
today will produce moderate accumulation totals along the Belize
coast.
Throughout the next few days, the upper-level setup over Mexico
will drift northwestward, relocating the most significant rainfall
across the west and northwest. The tropical wave will enhance
daily rainfall totals to maxima of 15-35 mm from Oaxaca to
northwestern Honduras on Saturday and from Michoacan to Oaxaca on
Sunday.


The Bahamas and Caribbean . . .
A lower-level trough will develop over western and central Cuba
today to support low-level moisture convergence. Well-defined
upper-level divergence will promote strong upward motion. These
synoptic conditions will lead to rainfall maxima of 20-35 mm today
and isolated moderate showers over southern Bahamas. A tropical
wave is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean later today,
increasing rain chances across Lesser Antilles.
A dense plume of Saharan dust dominates most of the region,
limiting deep convection. As the tropical wave moves westward, it
will increase precipitable water (PWAT) availability and dynamical
instability, supporting rainfall from the Lesser Antilles to the
Dominican Republic on Saturday. Accumulation maxima of 20-50 mm is
forecast. As the system traverses the Caribbean basin on Sunday,
strong low-level winds associated with the Caribbean low-level jet
and upper-level convergence, will inhibit deep convection across
the area.


Northern South America and Southern Central America . . .
A tropical wave entering the region will increase rain
accumulation totals today from northern Guyana to northwestern
Venezuela. A lower-level trough located over Orinoquia, supported
by upper-level diffluence, will drive rainfall accumulation totals
of 15 - 35 mm today. Further west, a tropical wave extended over
southern Central America will interact with low-level dynamics to
favor positive PWAT anomalies and low-level moisture convergence.
Maxima of 20 to 40 mm are forecasted today from western Nicaragua
to northwestern and western Colombia.
Later today into Saturday, an upper-level trough will begin to
support deep convection through the weekend. Peak rain
accumulations are forecasted between 35-70 mm on Saturday, with
localized maxima of 50 - 100 mm likely on Sunday. Across the
Orinoquia and Orinoco Delta regions, rainfall accumulations of
20-40 mm are expected daily through the weekend due to the
progression of the tropical wave.

Tropical Waves Initialized at 12 UTC:
Typ SOF INIT 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12
TW 20N  20W  22W  24W  25W  26W  27W  29W  31W  33W
TW 19N  34W  37W  40W  43W  46W  48W  50W  52W  54W
TW 18N  54W  57W  61W  64W  68W  71W  74W  77W  80W
TW 19N  77W  80W  83W  86W  89W  92W  94W  97W  100W
TW 22N  87W  90W  94W  98W  102W  106W  109W  111W  114W
TW 14N  97W  101W  106W  111W  114W  117W  Exits
TW 14N  112W  116W  118W  Exits





Sanchez-Perez...(WPC)