THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


CARIBBEAN FORECAST DISCUSSION




TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM JUN 14/19 UTC: A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS PRESENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE PACIFIC ITCZ INTO
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED. IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST
MEXICO/GULF COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...TO VENTILATE
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW. THIS WILL FAVOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON A DAILY BASIS IN NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT ESPECIALLY CHIAPAS/GUATEMALA
AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. ON MONDAY...EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 40-80MM IN CENTRAL VERACRUZ...WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
FROM WESTERN HONDURAS INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...CHIAPAS...OAXACA
AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION IN CENTRAL VERACRUZ/NORTHERN OAXACA.
IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM...WHILE IN THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...CHIAPAS AND
SOUTHERN OAXACA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ONSHORE
FLOW IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. IN WESTERN MEXICO AND ALONG THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN WESTERN
GUATEMALA...CHIAPAS/TABASCO/WESTERN CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...PETEN AND BELIZE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM...WHILE ONSHORE MOIST FLOW INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM.

ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ BEHAVING AS A
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST/ONSHORE...AND A TROPICAL
WAVE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT REACHES THE BROAD
CIRCULATION IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. ON MONDAY...THE WAVE WILL
STIMULATE CONVECTION IN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN NICARAGUA/SOUTHERN
HONDURAS/EASTERN EL SALVADOR TO FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION...WHILE
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND EASTERN GUATEMALA
REACHES 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE ITCZ
ENTERS THE CONTINENT TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN
EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS...WHILE IN EASTERN
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM.

IN CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED
THROUGH THE CYCLE ALONG THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN US...FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE CYCLE. THIS WILL FVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON
MONDAY...WHILE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND IN CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA AND IN THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN CUBA...WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH AND
ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE...AS THE RIDGE
MEANDERS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY
INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS/HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY
DISCONNECT THE MARINE LAYER FROM ENHANCING SYSTEMS IN THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON A DAILY BASIS. THIS WILL FAVOR TRACE AMOUNTS
FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/VI/PUERTO RICO INTO JAMAICA AND SOUTHEAST
CUBA ON A DAILY BASIS. IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HOWEVER...A
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY TO SUSTAIN A NORTHWARD UNDULATION
OF THE ITCZ INTO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND FAVOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN
TRINIDAD...WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH INTO DOMINICA SHOULD EXPECT
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO NORTH
INTO DOMINICA. NOTE THAT A TRADE WIND SURGE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
ON THURSDAY FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL STIMULATE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PRECIPITATION INITIALLY...ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...TO THEN FAVOR A DRYING TREND.

IN SOUTH AMERICA...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE
AMAZON BASIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NET...ALSO MODULATED BY
TRIPICAL WAVES. ON MONDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM FROM SOUTHERN GUYANA INTO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND MOST OF
EASTERN COLOMBIA. WEST OF THE ANDES...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS. IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN
GUYANAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON
TUESDAY...ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN COLOMBIA WILL
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE IN SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA/SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/BRASIL EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. IN ANDEAN COLOMBIA...EXPECT A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
TO FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND IN EASTERN COLOMBIA...TO REACH
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN THE NORTHERN GUYANAS EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA
AND EASTERN ECUADOR...AS WELL AS IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA INTO
PANAMA...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GUIANAS.

TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC.
TYPE INIT  15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00  SOF
TW   44W   46W   49W   52W   55W   59W   62W   66W    14N
TW   53W   56W   59W   61W   63W   66W   69W   71W    14N
TW   66W   69W   72W   75W   78W   79W   80W   82W    13N
TW   82W   84W   86W   88W   90W   92W   DISS  ---    17N

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO FRENCH GUIANA ON
TUESDAY TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR
SIMILAR AMOUNTS AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS SURINAME AND GUYANA. IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...THIS WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM AS WELL.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE GUIANAS ON MONDAY...TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE NORTHERN GUIANAS AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN SOUTHERN GUYANA/NORTHERN BRASIL. ON TUESDAY...IT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
IN TRINIDAD/NORTHEAST VENEZUELA AND MAXIMA OF 10MM FROM TOBAGO
NORTH INTO DOMINICA. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40
IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
EASTERN COLOMBIA ON MONDAY. IN EASTERN COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA IT WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE
IN NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA IT FAVORS MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
EASTERN COLOMBIA...WHILE IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA IT FAVORS MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA/ECUADOR.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 82W. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE
CYCLE...TO DISSIPATE IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION EARLY ON THURSDAY.
ON MONDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN COSTA RICA/WESTERN
NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION...WHILE IN NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS IT FAVORS 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON TUESDAY THE WAVE WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM ON THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION...WHILE IN NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS IT FAVORS MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN WESTERN
GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS/TABASCO/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

GALVEZ/DAVISON...WPC (USA)







Last Updated: 224 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021