Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
120 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Forecast Bulletin 02 July 2026 at 1720 UTC:

Note: Due to the Independence Day Holiday, there will not be
another discussion until Monday July 06.

(Correction)

Over the next three days, the most persistent rainfall is expected
across the Sierra Madre Occidental of Mexico, southern Central
America, and the northern and northwestern portions of South
America. Across these regions, 3-day rainfall totals could reach
100-150 mm, with isolated higher amounts. Elsewhere, generally
locally driven convection is expected, especially across
Hispaniola and Cuba, where pulse-type thunderstorms will develop
each afternoon. Meanwhile, moderate concentrations of Saharan dust
will maintain relatively dry conditions across the Lesser Antilles
and the northeastern Caribbean from the remainder of this
afternoon (Thursday) through the weekend.

At upper levels, a trough will persist over the western tropical
Atlantic and into the Caribbean, while a ridge dominates over
Mexico, with the exception of a shortwave trough over northeastern
Mexico. The upper-level trough extending into the Caribbean will
help enhance convection across Central America as low-level
moisture is advected inland.

The mid-level pattern differs somewhat, with a trough extending
from the Gulf of Mexico into the western Caribbean expected to
deepen into a closed low late tonight into early Friday before
drifting westward toward the northeastern coast of Mexico.
Meanwhile, a strong ridge will build westward from the eastern
Caribbean into the central Caribbean by Saturday.

At low levels, a strong subtropical high will maintain the trade
wind flow across much of the Atlantic basin, resulting in
predominantly easterly to southeasterly winds over the next
several days. These easterly winds will strengthen across the
Caribbean Sea, enhancing the Caribbean Low-Level Jet while also
increasing winds across Central America and southern Mexico,
allowing the Papagayo and Tehuantepec low-level jets to become
established.

Several tropical waves will move across the region during the
forecast period, producing a significant increase in moisture
across Central America, particularly southern Central America,
where precipitable water values are expected to become well above
normal. Moisture associated with these tropical waves will also
spread into northern South America, with above-normal moisture
expected across the northern and northwestern portions of the
continent. In contrast, drier air will gradually filter into
Brazil.


Tropical Waves:
SOF  INIT   03/00  03/12  04/00  04/12  05/00  05/12  06/00  06/12
17N   51W   54W    58W    62W    66W    70W    74W    77W    81W
14N   81W   83W    86W    90W    93W    97W   100W   103W   105W
11N   96W  100W   104W   108W   111W   114W   117W   ----   ----
15N   22W   25W    29W    33W    37W    40W    43W    46W    49W



Alamo...(WPC)