Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 00Z Thu 25 Dec 2025 - 00Z Thu 01 Jan 2026

An upper-level ridge centered over the islands will maintain
stable conditions at the start of the period, while a robust
surface high to the north continues to drive the synoptic pattern.
However, the pattern is expected to transition as the upper
ridge shifts eastward during the latter part of the week.
Simultaneously, the surface high will migrate east, allowing the
pressure gradient to relax and surface winds to veer to a more
southeasterly direction. This transition will introduce a
relatively drier airmass from the east that will remain in place
into the weekend.

By early next week, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
across the central Pacific north of the state. This feature will
push a cold front toward the western islands. While model
guidance remains uncertain regarding the precise timing of this
boundary, the general consensus favors the front stalling and
weakening in the vicinity of the western islands during the first
half of the week. This will be followed by a return to a more a
standard trade wind regime as high pressure begins to build back
in to the north near the start of the new year.


Pereira