Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Valid 00Z Mon 28 Sep 2026 - 00Z Mon 05 Oct 2026

...Very heavy rain along with significant flooding expected for
the eastern islands as Hurricane Nolo tracks south of the chain...

Per NHC, the latest track for Hurricane Nolo maintains a westward
trajectory south of the islands through Monday before turning
northwest-ward between the ridge and a mid-to-upper level
trough currently positioned northwest of Hawaii. A tight pressure
gradient between the storm and the ridge positioned to the north
will support strong easterly flow and significant moisture
advection into the eastern islands. Very heavy rainfall is
expected, especially for the eastern and southern portions of the
Big Island. This could produce significant, life-threatening
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. As
the system tracks to the north, it may draw deeper moisture across
the western islands before a drier airmass spreading from the
northeast begins to spread across the island chain mid-to-late
next week.

Refer to the advisories/statements from the National Hurricane
Center for latest information regarding Hurricane Nolo.

Campbell/Pereira