Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 00Z Sun 26 Jul 2026 - 00Z Sun 02 Aug 2026

...Fausto to track near the islands by midweek...

Latest guidance solutions remain reasonably well clustered into
early next week and a composite blend seems to offer a solid
forecast basis with good overall predictability.

The weather pattern for the state into Monday will be dominated
by the influence of strong high pressure bridging to the north of
the state. This will support moderate to strong/breezy mean
island trades. This pattern will focus limited moisture and
rainfall chances mainly into windward terrain under ridging aloft.

Meanwhile, per the latest track from the National Hurricane
Center, Hurricane Fausto is forecast to maintain a steady WNW
trajectory towards Hawaii, again expected to weaken to a tropical
storm and pass north of the eastern and central Islands Tue-Tue
night, while coming close to northern Kauai on Wednesday. Guidance
has been consistent in showing a quick disruption to the east-
northeasterly trades by Tue-Wed with the passage of Fausto to the
north. While the bulk of the moisture associated with Fausto's CDO
remains north of the island, deepening south-southeasterly over
the islands (southern periphery of Fausto's circulation) will at
least temporarily draw in much higher PWs along with gusty showers
within Fausto's southern bands. The good news is that the
potential for heavy rainfall will be relatively short-lived, with
a return in the more typical east-northeasterly trades and
associated windward and Mauka rainfall distribution/intensity by
late week.

Hurley