The Weather Prediction Center

College Park, MD

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 28 2023 - 00Z Thu Oct 05 2023

The guidance agrees that a warm core high shifts north and
northeast of Hawaii into the weekend which keeps trade winds in
place. Trades should weaken by early next week as a pair of upper
lows move into the main islands from different directions, the
warm core ridge to the northeast weakens, and a front/upper trough
approach and slowly move through the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument.  This will act to lead to an increase in
precipitable water values.  The remains of Tropical Depression
14-E are expected to pass far enough south of the archipelago to
preempt any major heavy rainfall threat, though a modest uptick in
shower activity cannot be ruled out.  Another tropical wave
appears to move south of Hawai'i mid-next week.  Showers will tend
to focus over the favorable windward/mountain areas but could
become more feisty late this week through early next week due to
the nearby upper level disturbances and increased


Last Updated: 248 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023