Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Valid 00Z Wed 18 Mar 2026 - 00Z Wed 25 Mar 2026

...An overall wet pattern to continue over the next 7 days across
Hawaii...

The latest model consensus is for an overall wet pattern over the
next week across Hawaii. The broad cyclonic flow currently across
the Central Pacific to the north of the Island will continue
through Thursday. After this consensus is for amplification of the
a trof to the west of the Island along approximately 170W. Prior
to the amplification, an axis of anomalous PW values is expected
to be centered across the eastern portion of the state from Maui
to the Big Island.   With the expected trof amplification to the
west of the Island, anomalous PW values will then be drawn
northeastward across all of the Islands beginning Thursday. This
anomalous PW axis, with PW values 2 to 4 standard deviations above
the mean, will then remain across the Islands through the
upcoming weekend and into next week as the upstream trof is
expected to be very slow moving.

While there are the typical model to model differences with
respect to qpf details, there is overall agreement that a heavy
rain pattern will persist across the state for much of the
upcoming 7 day period.

With soils saturated and creeks/rivers high from recent heavy
rains, the increasing chances of widespread additional heavy rains
late week into next week , will support the risk of life-
threatening flash flooding and landslides statewide during these
periods.


Oravec