Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 00Z Sat 14 Feb 2026 - 00Z Sat 21 Feb 2026

An upper level low/trough west of Hawai'i keeps precipitable
water values above average/near 1.5" today, which could allow the
usual tradewind showers to have a tad more oomph rainfall-wise than
usual. From Saturday onward, ridging bridges across the state.
Throughout this time, tradewind/upslope showers are expected
across the region. Late Sunday into Monday, a modest moisture
surge from the northeast could cause an uptick in upslope showers;
precipitable water values could rise back to 1.5" briefly. Breezy
to windy conditions are also likely in response to the pressure
gradient between the high to the northeast and a broad surface
low/trough of low pressure south and west of the archipelago.
Winds should veer with time early to mid next week as a surface
high pressure area exerts more influence from the north...which
starts to draw deeper moisture northward around the southwest
periphery of the ridge.

The guidance shows general agreement in advertising an upper
level trough/front move through the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument towards the main Hawaiian Islands. Its
accompanying front appears to hold off through next Thursday. The
guidance now agrees on a more northern deep layer cyclone lifting
away from the area mid-next week and a second upper level
trough/low forming west to northwest of the main islands late next
week. Despite this general agreement, there remains a bit of a QPF
difference between the wet 00z GFS and much drier 00z ECMWF from
next Thursday onward for the westernmost main islands. For the
time being, modest amounts are a reasonable compromise for late
next week until the guidance can show better agreement in their
QPF patterns.



Roth