US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023
 
Valid Friday November 17 2023 - Tuesday November 21 2023
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast, Sat, Nov 18.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Northeast, Sat, Nov 18.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Fri, Nov 17 and Mon, Nov20.
- High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Sun, Nov 19.
 
Detailed Summary:

...CONUS...

Shortwave energy associated with a heavy rain threat over South Florida in the short range will 
drag moisture with it up the East Coast later this week before merging with a Midwest/Canadian 
trough and producing heavy rain/snow and strong winds across parts of eastern/northern Maine on 
Saturday. Most of the guidance, save for the GFS/GEFS, has trended farther east with the track of 
this shortwave and associated surface low pressure system. The non-GFS 12z models have the 
associated QPF max axis over New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, Canada. The main wind threat will be 
along the New England coast on Saturday.

Elsewhere, rain showers will form out ahead of a cold front moving through the Midwest and Great 
Lakes on Friday. Southerly flow out ahead of this cold front will support some above average 
temperatures from the Midwest to the East Coast between Thursday night and Friday night. An upper 
low parked over the east Pacific will finally move onshore this Friday bringing coastal and low 
elevation rain to the West, while producing some snow over the Cascades and Northern/Central 
Rockies this weekend.

...Alaska...

The active pattern continues for coastal Alaska during the medium range period. Waves of low 
pressure will bring repeated rounds of precipitation to the Panhandle region. The first wave will 
arrive on Friday and generate heavy rain and heavy mountain snow to the Panhandle. This is a higher 
confidence outlook given the current operational model agreement as to the timing and intensity of 
this threat. Another round of heavy precipitation is expected to arrive sometime on Monday and will 
be supported by a potent upper-level low. The 12z ECMWF and GFS appear to have diverged a bit from 
their 00z/06z consensus, but are still in reasonable agreement as to the general area and intensity 
of the heavy precip. The 12z CMC appears to have trended closer to the latest GFS EC solutions as 
well, which increases our confidence of this threat. A large Aleutian low pressure system will 
generate strong winds across the far western islands on Sunday.

The WPC Days 3-7 Hazards Discussion product will be discontinued after this issuance. Thanks for 
reading!


Kebede