Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
709 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 12Z Fri 19 Jun 2026 - 12Z Tue 23 Jun 2026


...General Overview/Guidance Evaluation... 
The general flow pattern features ridging across eastern AK with 
a negatively tilted trough oriented from western AK into the 
northeast Pacific. The guidance shows excellent agreement on this,
as well as detail issues. For the pressures, fronts, and 500 hPa
heights, utilized an even blend of the 12z GFS, 12z ECMWF, 12z
Canadian, and 12z UKMET before phasing in some of the 12z NAEFS
and 00z ECMWF ensemble mean late in the period to deal with
lingering detail issues. The grids started with the 19z NBM and
incorporated some of the 12z ECMWF/12z ECMWF ensemble mean
solutions.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are 
expected across central and southern portions of the Interior 
through much of the forecast period within a moist and unstable
southeast flow, with the highest chances near the Alaska Range. 
Lightning strikes from some of these storms may cause fire weather
concerns for some areas. Otherwise, gales move through portions of the
Aleutians as a fairly deep low wobbles south of the western 
Aleutians. 

Roth


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html