Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Valid 00Z Tue 03 Mar 2026 - 00Z Tue 10 Mar 2026

A weakening upper-level shortwave and an associated plume of
deeper moisture will linger over the island chain during the
initial portion of the period. As this feature exits, surface high
pressure will amplify to the northeast, tightening the pressure
gradient and strengthening easterly trade winds. This regime will
usher in drier air and a more stable airmass across the state by
Wednesday. By Thursday, winds are forecast to veer more to the 
southeast and weaken slightly as the surface high lifts further 
northeast and an upper trough and associated front approach from 
the west.

Model guidance is in relatively good agreement that this cold
front and its deep moisture plume will edge closer to the state 
late in the week but likely stall west of the islands. The 
boundary is then expected to lift out ahead of a deepening low 
pressure system tracking across the central Pacific, well 
northwest of the islands, over the weekend. By the end of the 
period on Monday, the front associated with this low is expected 
to center just west of the islands. While organized precipitation 
is not currently anticipated, the proximity of the accompanying 
moisture plume may enhance cloudiness and shower activity over the
western islands.

Pereira