Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1128 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019
Valid Jul 15/1200 UTC thru Jul 19/0000 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
12Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence
...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
...Tropical Depression Barry...
Preference: General Model Blend (CONUS)
Blend of 12Z GFS / 00Z ECMWF(T.D. Barry)
Confidence: Slightly above average (CONUS)
Average (T.D. Barry)
The focus in the short term period is currently Tropical
Depression Barry as it transitions into the Ohio Valley and
eventually becomes absorbed into the westerlies and crosses
through portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. The
consensus of the latest model guidance for the track of Barry
favors the ECMWF/GFS solutions. The UKMET also shows a similar
track solution to the current forecast, but the mid-level energy
becomes too amplified/strong as it crosses into the Ohio Valley
and eastern US. Therefore, less weight was given to the UKMET
regarding the eventual track of the remnants of Barry.
Elsewhere across the CONUS, typical summertime pattern developing
toward Day 3 as heights rise across the country with building
ridging over the southern US. Northern stream energy will stay
confined to the northern tier of the US and southern Canada. A
closed low and shortwave energy will approach the Pacific
Northwest by later in the week and overall there is reasonably
good agreement between the GFS/ECMWF with placement and strength.
The 00Z CMC appeared to be too weak/sheared out with its energy
while the UKMET was slower than the rest of the guidance. So here
a blend of the ECMWF/GFS is favored.
Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml