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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1900Z Jul 15, 2019)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Valid 00Z Tue Jul 16 2019 - 00Z Thu Jul 18 2019 ...Tropical Depression Barry remains a flooding threat for the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley... ...Severe weather and flash flooding are possible in the north-central U.S... Tropical depression Barry is expected to transition to a post-tropical cyclone tonight as it moves slowly northeastward across Arkansas. Heavy rainfall of an additional 3 to 6 inches is possible in its vicinity and along trailing rain bands. Persistent heavy downpours will lead to continued flooding and flash flooding concerns across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for the rest of today across parts of Louisiana, far southeastern Texas, and far southwestern Mississippi, with a Slight Risk extending northward to the bootheel of Missouri. As Barry moves northeastward on Tuesday, the flash flooding threat will stretch from Arkansas into parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, where there is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. A brief tornado or two is also possible. As a frontal system moves across the north-central U.S. and then stalls, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast there. Flash flooding and severe weather are both possible. For the rest of today and tonight, Slight Risks of both severe weather and flash flooding are in place for the upper Midwest, with chances for severe weather stretching westward into the Northern/Central High Plains. Severe weather is again forecast for the Northern High Plains on Tuesday. Farther south, scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms will continue for the Rockies and High Plains on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, scattered showers and storms are expected across the northern Plains to the upper Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will generally be near or above average. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for portions of Arizona and southern California, with Heat Advisories in place in parts of the Northern Plains and eastern Carolinas. Petersen Graphics available at