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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 2000Z Feb 17, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 00Z Tue Feb 18 2025 - 00Z Thu Feb 20 2025 ...Record cold to spill further southward throughout much of the Plains by midweek, with below average temperatures spanning across much of the East... ...Winter storm to track across the central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday before impacting the southern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday with accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain... ...Areas of mountain snow and lower elevation rain forecast across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies over the next few days... A bitter cold arctic airmass is expected to continue impacting the north-central U.S. while also spreading further south and east over the next few days. As a potent high pressure system gradually slides from south-central Canada into the northern Plains on Tuesday, low temperatures dropping well below zero are forecast from Montana and the Dakotas to the Upper Midwest and sections of the central Plains. When combined with light to moderate winds, the coldest wind chills over the next few days are forecast from northeast Montana to North Dakota, where it is anticipated to feel as cold as 60 degrees below zero. This level of cold is life threatening and could shortly lead to frostbite and hypothermia. By Wednesday, the cold front marking the boundary between more seasonable February temperatures and the arctic freezer will spill southward into northern Mexico and the northern Gulf of America. This will lead to well below average temperatures spanning the entire Plains and points eastward by midweek, with the lone exception being parts of the Florida Peninsula. Lows on Wednesday are forecast to dip into the single digits across much of the Northeast, Midwest, and parts of the southern Plains, including Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Additionally, highs are expected to remain below freezing for many areas between central Texas and the southern Mid-Atlantic on northward. Daily records for both overnight bitter lows and afternoon cold highs are expected to be widespread from the Plains and expanding into the Mississippi Valley. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories are currently extensive and span from the northern Plains/Upper Midwest to central Texas. Be sure to dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must go outside. As the extremely cold airmass sinks south, a frontal system and weak area of low pressure will provide a focus for wintry precipitation between the central Plains and southern Mid-Atlantic through midweek. Starting tonight and into the day on Tuesday, moderate to locally heavy snowfall is forecast from parts of Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks of Missouri and Arkansas, with somewhat lighter snow stretching into parts of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys early Wednesday. Areas of freezing rain and sleet are also likely to occur just south between central Oklahoma to northern Mississippi. The heaviest snowfall amounts are currently forecast near the border intersection of Missouri, Oklahoma, and Kansas, where probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are between 60-80%. As the system slides eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday, locally heavy rain and isolated instances of flash flooding are possible along the Gulf Coast. With the surface low eventually tracking just off the Southeast coastline Wednesday evening, precipitation is forecast to spread across much of the Carolinas and into the southern Mid-Atlantic. Here, heavy snow is possible along the VA-NC border and the southern Delmarva Peninsula, with impactful freezing rain and sleet most likely into southern and southeast North Carolina, as well as neighboring portions of South Carolina. This forecast remains somewhat uncertain with a notable southward trend over the last few forecast cycles, so be sure to check often for updated forecasts. Elsewhere, heavy mountain snow and light lower elevation snow continues across the northern Rockies through Tuesday as the next Pacific storm system enters the Northwest early Wednesday. For the most part, this precipitation is expected to remain beneficial outside of potentially hazardous winter driving conditions at mountain passes. Lastly, cold winds continuing over the Great Lakes is forecast to keep the lake-effect snow machine open for business downwind of Lake Ontario, with an additional 6 to 8 inches of snowfall forecast along the southern lake-shore between Rochester and Syracuse, NY. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php