Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 17 2025 - 12Z Wed Feb 19 2025

...A surge of arctic air will bring record cold temperatures further
southward into the mid-section of the country through the next few days...

...Potential of a winter storm increasing from the central Plains to the
mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday into Wednesday morning...

...Mountain snow and lower-elevation rain across the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies will have a lull on Tuesday before another Pacific system
brings the next round of unsettled weather into the Pacific Northwest
Tuesday night...

...Snow gradually tapers off in New England today behind a big storm but
lake-effect snow and blustery conditions continue...

A large and intense low pressure system is beginning to move away from New
England after dumping moderate to locally heavy snow along with a swath of
freezing rain across New England.  Even though the wintry precipitation
will largely taper off today, the huge circulation of the deep cyclone
will continue to funnel strong and gusty winds across the entire Northeast
and the Great Lakes through the next couple of days.  Lake-effect snow
will once again make its presence known along the Snow Belt downwind from
the Great Lakes.  In addition, blizzard warnings remain in effect into
this afternoon along the western slopes of the central Appalachians due to 
snow falling under very gusty upslope flow forced by the slowly departing
storm.  The enhanced snowfall is expected to taper off later today as an
arctic high pressure system begins to usher colder and drier air into the
region.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned high pressure system will continue to push a
large pool of arctic air from Canada down into the mid-section of the
country through the next few days.  Temperatures of 40 degrees below
normal near the Canadian border this morning will plunge into the central
High Plains by Tuesday.  This means that actual temperatures will remain
colder than -30 degrees for the next couple of mornings near the Canadian
border while high temperatures may not top the zero-degree mark as far
south as northern Kansas by Tuesday afternoon.  Wind chill temperatures
will reach dangerously cold levels between -30 and -60 degree over the
northern Plains.

Farther west, a Pacific system will continue to bring mountain snow and
lower-elevation rain from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies
today but a lull is expected on Tuesday before another Pacific system
brings the next round of unsettled weather into the Pacific Northwest by
Tuesday night.  Meanwhile, upslope snowfall north of the arctic front
across the northern Rockies will be carried downstream into the
north-central Plains today.  As the arctic high pressure system from
Canada pushes further southward, a low pressure wave is forecast to
develop along the arctic front.  In response, snow will become heavier and
more widespread across the central Plains along with gusty winds on
Tuesday.  A swath of freezing rain/sleet can also be expected to develop
farther south across Oklahoma to Arkansas later on Tuesday into Tuesday 
night.  Rain showers will also expand in coverage across eastern Texas 
with the possibility of strong thunderstorms developing closer to the Gulf 
Coast of Louisiana Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Meanwhile, 
moderate to heavy snow will spread farther east, likely reaching into the 
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys whereas the wintry mix could move into the 
interior Deep South early on Wednesday.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php