Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 22 2025 - 00Z Mon Mar 24 2025

...Wet weather continues across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies as
multiple Pacific systems pass through the region...

...Severe weather and heavy rain threat across portions of the Mississippi
Valley/Southeast on Sunday...

...Fire weather threat continues across large portions of the Central to
Southern Plains through Saturday...

A Pacific system currently moving into the Pacific Northwest will continue
pushing eastward through the northern Great Basin Friday afternoon and
into the northern/central Rockies during the day Saturday, spreading a mix
of lower elevation rains and higher elevation snows through the region.
Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall with showers and storms
along upslope regions of the Coastal Ranges of the Pacific Northwest will
remain possible through Saturday morning, with generally much lighter
amounts of rain mixing with snow for lower elevation inland areas. Winter
weather-related Advisories and Warnings are in effect for many of the area
mountain ranges where higher elevations could see upwards of a 12"+ of
snow. Precipitation chances should trend downward through
Saturday/Saturday night before chances begin to quickly ramp back up again
ahead of the approach of another system on Sunday. Showers and storms
producing very heavy rainfall are likely for upslope areas of the Olympic
Ranges and northern Cascades in Washington, and some isolated instances of
flooding will be possible. Heavy snowfall will pick up for the northern
Cascades and into the northern Rockies by Sunday evening as well.

Rain showers and interior/higher elevation show showers will continue
across areas of northern New England through this evening as an area of
low pressure pushes away from the coast. Another surface wave moving
through the Great Lakes through Friday evening/overnight and into the
Northeast during the day Saturday will bring some light rain showers as
well as some light snows for interior locations and higher elevations of
the Appalachians. To the west, a more significant low pressure/frontal
system will strengthen/organize in the lee of the Rockies as the first
Pacific system moves out onto the Plains. Moist southerly flow will lead
to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances by late Saturday evening and
through the overnight hours from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the
Ohio Valley. A cold front sweeping southeastward will help to trigger
additional storms during the day Sunday from the ArkLaTex east into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has
highlighted the region with a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) as
sufficient CAPE and increasing shear will lead to some more intense
thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds, as well as a
tornado or two. Increasing storm coverage into the evening will also bring
an isolated flash flood threat across portions of the Lower Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys and into the central Appalachians. To the north, a
band of snow is expected where colder air is in place along and to the
north of the surface low track across the Upper Midwest. Moderate to
locally heavy snow is expected particularly for regions closer to the
Canadian border, with accumulations of 2-4", locally higher, possible by
Sunday evening with snow expected to continue into the overnight hours.

Very dry conditions along with blustery winds and warm temperatures will
continue to lead to fire weather conditions across much of the Central and
Southern Plains today through Saturday. For the rest of Friday, the most
Critical Risk (level 2/3) as noted from the SPC will be across northwest
Texas, with Elevated Fire Weather conditions (level 1/3) elsewhere across
the Middle Mississippi Valley southwest through the Southern Plains, as
well as portions of the central and southern High Plains. On Saturday, the
most Critical Risk will be across southwest Texas and southeastern New
Mexico with Elevated conditions elsewhere across the central/Southern High
Plains.

A progressive pattern across the country with periodic cold front passages
will bring varying temperatures through the weekend. Much of the East
Coast will see a warm up with mild to warm, above average conditions on
Saturday before a cold front brings cooler, more seasonable temperatures
to the Northeast on Sunday. The Great Lakes will remain rather chilly and
below average on Saturday before conditions moderate a bit on Sunday.
Areas of the Northern/Central Plains and Midwest will also see a mild,
above average Saturday before cooler, closer to average conditions on
Sunday, while the Southern Plains will remain rather warm and well above
average through the weekend. Northern areas of the West under the
influence of the passage of the Pacific Systems will generally be cooler
and below average while southern areas will be warm and above average.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php