Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 00Z Tue Feb 17 2026

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast...

...Heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains...

Low pressure over the Southern Plains will move eastward to off the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday morning. As the storm moves across
the Gulf Coast, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along parts
of the Central Gulf Coast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast
through Sunday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains.  The associated heavy
rain will cause mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

As the boundary moves eastward, showers and severe thunderstorms will
develop over parts of the Southeast and Eastern Gulf Coast. Therefore, the
SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Southeast and Eastern Gulf Coast from Sunday into Monday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

The threat of excessive rainfall has decreased to a Marginal Risk on
Sunday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and
Eastern Gulf Coast from Sunday through Monday morning.  The associated
heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas
that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, upper-level troughing moves onshore over the West Coast from
Saturday evening into Monday. Rain and higher-elevation snow will develop
over the Pacific Northwest off and on from Saturday through late Sunday
night. The rain and snow become steadier over the Northwest on Monday
afternoon.

Furthermore, rain will develop over parts of California overnight
Saturday, with higher-elevation snow starting on Sunday morning.
Similarly, rain and higher-elevation snow will become steadier on Monday.
Heavy snowfall accumulations will develop over the Sierra Nevada Mountains
Sunday night into Monday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php