Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 14 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 16 2026

...A major winter storm is forecast to bring very heavy snow across the
upper Great Lakes and upper Midwest along with widespread high winds
across the northern tier states...

...Severe thunderstorms appear likely across the mid-section of the
country to the east-central U.S. later Sunday into Monday morning...

...Snow and gusty winds will progress through interior New England today...

...High elevation snow continues today across the northern Rockies as the
tail end of an Atmospheric River event tapers off along the Cascades...

...An anomalously early heatwave will begin to intensify over the western
U.S. heading into the new week...

...Critical Risk of fire weather for the Central and Southern High
Plains...

A low pressure system that brought moderate to heavy snow and very gusty
winds across the Great Lakes yesterday will track across New England
today, bringing light to locally moderate snowfall amounts to northern New
England before tapering off early on Sunday.  Meanwhile across the Pacific
Northwest and into the Northern Rockies, the most recent Atmospheric River
event is reaching its tail end stage today as the main jet stream energy
moves farther inland into the northern Rockies.  The jet stream will begin
to interact with arctic air arriving from Canada to expand the coverage of
snow across the northern Rockies and gradually spread the snow eastward
into the northern High Plains today.  This interaction is a precursor of a
major winter storm which is forecast to develop over the northern Plains. 
A low pressure system will begin to form today over Wyoming where the
arctic air and Pacific jet stream meet.  By tonight into Sunday morning,
the snow will further expand and spread quickly east across the northern
Plains into the upper Midwest as the low pressure system ejects out of
Wyoming and intensifies rapidly.  By Sunday morning, the cyclone will
become quite intense with strong and gusty winds impacting much of the
northern to central Plains and into the upper Midwest.  A swath of very
heavy snow can be expected just north of the low pressure track, along
with a narrow band of wintry mixed precipitation.  Blizzard conditions
appear likely across northern Wisconsin to upper Michigan through Sunday
and continue into Monday as the cyclone reaches peak intensity and tracks
into the Great Lakes.

South of the intense cyclone, anomalous warmth will peak this afternoon
across the central to southern High Plains.  The combination of
persistently dry and gusty winds from the west will make for a critical
fire risk today.  Some showers and thunderstorms should develop ahead of
the intensifying cyclone but they should be confined to the central Plains
Saturday night into Sunday morning.  The critical fire danger will shift
farther south across the southern Rockies to much of the southern High
Plains on Sunday before the arctic front arrives.  As the intensifying
cyclone tracks eastward, a rather potent cold front will sweep across the
mid-section of the country on Sunday.  A squall line containing severe
weather and high winds will likely accompany the potent front, especially
Sunday evening across the Midwest to the Mid-South.  By Monday morning,
severe weather could extend from the lower Great Lakes through the Ohio
and Tennessee Valley as well as the Deep South where the Storm Prediction
Center has issued an enhanced risked of severe thunderstorms.  Meanwhile,
sharply colder air will surge down the Plains.  Wind chill values -10s and
-20s will be common across the northern Plains by Monday morning with
below freezing wind chills all the way down into Texas.

An upper ridge will maintain a prolonged warm up for parts of the West and
Southwest this weekend. Daily high temperatures are expected to range in
the 60s and 70s for the Great Basin, 70s and 80s for northern California,
and 90s for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Some daily
record-tying/breaking highs will be possible for southern California and
the Desert Southwest. These temperatures will serve as a baseline for even
more anomalous, more widespread record-breaking heat expected into next
week. Meanwhile, conditions will remain much colder behind a front to the
north through the Pacific Northwest, with highs mainly in the 40s.  From
Sunday into Monday morning, moisture from the next Pacific system will
begin to increase precipitation chances and coverage for the Pacific
Northwest.

Kong/Campbell/Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php