Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 24 2025 - 00Z Wed Mar 26 2025

...Snow continues across the Upper Midwest to the Upper Great Lakes today
as severe weather and heavy rain threat emerge across the Mid-South...

...More wet weather expected for the Pacific Northwest through Monday
before a drying trend sets in...

...Well above average, warm to hot early Spring temperatures will expand
over the western/central U.S. this week with numerous record highs
possible by Tuesday...

A low pressure/frontal system moving through the Midwest/Southeast this
afternoon will continue to bring widespread precipitation chances,
including severe and winter weather, to the eastern U.S. today through
Monday. Moist southerly flow ahead a southeastward moving cold front
across the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the ArkLaTex will
support the development of showers and storms Sunday afternoon and into
the evening hours. Increasing shear and sufficient CAPE will lead to some
more potent thunderstorms, with a Slight Risk of severe weather from the
Storm Prediction Center (level 2/5) for the threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes. In addition, locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flash flooding will be possible into the evening and overnight
hours as storms increase in coverage and begin to repeat over the same
areas as storm motions become more parallel to the slowing cold front.
Storm chances will shift towards the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts Monday as
the front pushes further southward, though severe weather and heavy
rainfall chances will remain much more limited. To the north, a band of
moderate to heavy snowfall will also continue along and to the north of
the low track through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Winter
weather-related warnings and advisories are in place from northern
Minnesota/Wisconsin into the UP of Michigan as snowfall totals of 3-6",
locally 8", will be possible through Monday morning. Rain chances will
spread eastward ahead of the system late Sunday and into the day Monday
from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England, with a
wintry mix for the Lower Great Lakes, Appalachians, and interior
Northeast. Some light to moderate snow accumulations will be possible for
higher elevations of the Adirondacks as well as across portions of
northern New England, particularly in Maine. Precipitation chances will
taper off by Monday night with some snow showers lingering longest into
Tuesday morning for the interior Northeast.

Meanwhile, a plume of plentiful moisture/Atmospheric River accompanying a
storm system moving into the Pacific Northwest will continue to lead to
very heavy rain along upslope portions of the Olympic Mountains and
northern Cascades in Washington through this evening. A Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) remains in effect as several inches of
rainfall on top of already saturated soils could lead to several instances
of flooding. Moderate to heavy snowfall will also continue for higher
elevations of the northern Cascades and inland through portions of the
northern Rockies. A lighter mix of rain showers (along the coast) and
rain/snow showers (inland) can be expected elsewhere in the Pacific
Northwest/northern Great Basin. The heavy precipitation chances will begin
to wind down overnight Sunday and into the day Monday as the flow of
moisture subsides, though some lower elevation rain/higher elevation snow
showers will linger as a frontal boundary remains draped through the
region. Elsewhere, a clipper system will bring some light rain chances
from the Northern Plains southeast through the Midwest and into the Ohio
Valley late Monday and through the day Tuesday as it quickly drops through
the region. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined Elevated Fire Weather
conditions (level 1/3) across much of the central/southern Plains through
this afternoon as conditions remain dry, warm, and breezy. A much more
isolated threat will persist into Monday for southeastern
Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma. 

An upcoming weather story this week will be the significant amount of well
above average, warm to hot early Spring temperatures expanding in coverage
over the western/central U.S. as an upper-ridge builds in a more amplified
pattern. Forecast highs Monday and Tuesday will range from the 50s and 60s
in the northern Rockies/Plains; the 60s and 70s for the Pacific
Northwest/coastal California, the Great Basin, and the central
Rockies/Plains; and the 80s to low 90s from central California through the
Southwest and into the Southern Plains. The Desert Southwest will see the
hottest temperatures, with highs into the mid- to upper 90s. Numerous
record-tying/breaking highs will be possible from Texas west through the
Desert Southwest and northward along the West Coast by Tuesday. These well
above average conditions look to continue through the week, generally
shifting more eastward with time from the western to central U.S. While
not quite as abnormal, highs the next couple of days will still be mild to
warm and above average across much of the Midwest, Southeast, and
Mid-Atlantic. Colder, below average conditions will remain confined to the
Great Lakes and interior Northeast/New England as the storm system passes
through, with highs generally in the 30s and 40s.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php