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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1917Z Feb 07, 2023)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 216 PM EST Tue Feb 07 2023 Valid 00Z Wed Feb 08 2023 - 00Z Fri Feb 10 2023 ...Heavy snow through tonight for portions of the Cascades and northern Rockies... ...Scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible Wednesday in the middle and lower Mississippi Valley... ...Heavy snow possible in parts of the Upper Midwest and freezing rain possible in the higher elevations of the Northeast on Thursday... The frontal system that is currently banked up against the coast of the Pacific Northwest will push inland this evening and continue to push across the Northwest through Wednesday. Moisture will stream ahead of and along the cold front, and heavy snow expected in the higher elevations of the Cascades and northern Rocky mountains through tonight into Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the cold front will emerge into the Plains and continue to push southeastwards. Cooler air in the wake of the front will result max temperatures briefly dropping 5-10 degrees below average. High pressure will build over the West behind the front, then the next frontal system will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest Thursday night into Friday. In the eastern US, a cold front stretched from the Great Lakes region through Central Texas this afternoon. The northern half of this front will continue east across the Northeast tonight followed by a secondary cold front on Wednesday. The southern half of the front will stall as low pressure strengthens over the southern Plains tonight. Southerly flow will push warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, which will provide support for the development of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night. Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible, and the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5). The main storm hazards will be damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and possibly some hail. In addition, locally heavy rain may result in isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Precipitation will shift to the Southeast on Friday as the frontal system progresses, and the threat of severe weather will lower with only isolated severe thunderstorms and flash flooding expected. The low pressure center over the southern Plains will surge northeast late Wednesday and track across the Great Lakes by Thursday night. Snow and mixed wintry precipitation are forecast for parts of the Upper Midwest and Northeast on Thursday. Snow could be heavy at times, mainly in Wisconsin and northern Michigan, and freezing rain could cause ice to accumulate in the higher elevations of the Northeast, mainly parts of the Catskills, Adirondacks, and northern New England mountains. On Friday, the low pressure center will continue northeast into Canada and the trailing cold front will push off the east coast. Dolan Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php