Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 13 2026 - 12Z Mon Jun 15 2026

...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds,
large hail, and numerous instances of flash flooding are expected to
impact the central U.S. today...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to move across the
Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast to end the weekend...

...Heat will build over the Pacific Northwest as much cooler air surges
into the mid-section of the country to end the heat in the East...

A surge of cool air from central Canada is working its way southward into
the northern Plains.  This cool air mass will overspread much of the
eastern two-thirds of the country by early next week.  As the cool air
mass advances forward and plows into the hot and humid air, strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to erupt and expand eastward across the
south-central Plains toward the Midwest today and into tonight, with the
risk of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes to accompany these
thunderstorms. In addition, locally a few inches of heavy rain can be
expected with these thunderstorms leading to slight risk of flash flooding
across much of the south-central Plains to the Midwest, with a moderate
risk focusing around southwestern Missouri into tonight.  These severe
storms are expected to lose intensity by Sunday morning as they advance
farther to the south toward the southern Plains.

By Sunday, a low pressure wave developing along the cold front will likely
trigger additional strong to severe thunderstorms from the Midwest to the
Ohio Valley and through lower Great Lakes.  Increasingly southerly wind
ahead of the cold front will try to send heat and humidity up the East
Coast once again on Sunday with high temperatures soaring to near 100
degrees in central North Carolina.  The heat and humidity will aid the
production of additional strong to severe thunderstorms from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast later on Sunday ahead of the cold front with
the intensifying low pressure wave.  Damaging winds appear to be the main
concern with this episode of strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday
across the Northeast to the Mid-Atlantic.  By Monday morning, the cold
front is forecast to move off the New England coast as the refreshingly
cool air from Canada will drop temperatures into the 40s and 50s across
the northern and central U.S. by Monday morning.

Elsewhere, a round of generally light rainfall associated with the western
end of the  cold front is expected to gradually taper off over the
northern High Plains.  Meanwhile, monsoonal showers are forecast to emerge
over the Four Corners and Southern Rockies later today.  The Desert
Southwest and the Central Valley of California will remain hot,  with
highs in the 110s and 100s, respectively.  Across the Pacific Northwest,
heat is forecast to build, with record-high temperatures potentially
reaching into the 80s and lower 90s by Sunday afternoon.  Farther east,
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will not be as hot today behind a leading
front.  However, the South remains hot and humid as the front will become
nearly stationary.  From Sunday into Monday, the South is expected to
remain under the threat of showers and thunderstorms with a threat of
heavy rain from the southern High Plains through northern Texas into the
lower Mississippi Valley.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php