Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 14 2026 - 00Z Mon Mar 16 2026

...Intense clipper-like system bringing heavy snow across the Upper
Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes early today along with widespread
blustery conditions...

...Active Atmospheric River pattern bringing heavy lower elevation/coastal
rain and high elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies...

...A winter storm will gradually develop across the Northern High Plains
today into Saturday before expanding and intensifying across the Northern
Plains later on Saturday, reaching into the upper Midwest Sunday morning...

...An anomalously early heatwave will begin to build over the western U.S.
heading into the weekend...

...Critical Risk of fire weather for the Central and Southern High
Plains...

Moderate to heavy snow is spreading across the Great Lakes as an intense
low pressure system moves through the Upper Midwest.
Snowfall totals of 6 to 12+ inches along with the strong and very gusty
winds may lead to poor visibility and blowing snow at times.  Mixed rain
and snow along with strong and very gusty winds will quickly sweep across
the lower Great Lakes through tonight with moderate snowfall possible
across upstate New York as this clipper-like system moves through.
Although this system will be exiting the Northeast on Saturday the snow
will be slow in tapering off across New England with widespread 4 to 6+
inches expected across northern New England. Locally heavier totals are
expected downwind of Lake Ontario due to lake enhancements.

For the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies, heavy lower
elevation/coastal rain and high elevation snow will persist through the
weekend thanks to an ongoing Atmospheric River directed toward the region.
Additional snowfall totals in the Olympics/Cascades and northern Rockies
will be as much as 2 to 4 feet through the weekend.  The heavy rainfall
may lead to some isolated instances of flooding.  In addition, colder air
settling into the region later today could result in some snow mixing in
for these lower elevations.  The rain and snow should wind down into
Saturday, especially across the Pacific Northwest, while lingering a bit
longer in the northern Rockies.

A major winter storm is forecast to develop over the Northern Plains this
weekend. As the Pacific jet stream associated with the
Atmospheric River penetrates farther inland, it will begin to interact
with arctic air arriving from Canada.  The interaction will expand the
coverage of snow across the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains
today when a low pressure system begins to form on Saturday over Wyoming
where the arctic air and Pacific jet stream meets.  Saturday night into
Sunday morning will see the snow further expand and spread quickly east
across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest as the low pressure
system ejects out of Wyoming.  A narrow swath of very heavy snow can be
expected just north of the low pressure track, together with a band of
wintry mixed precipitation.  By Sunday morning, the cyclone is forecast to
become quite intense with strong and gusty winds impacting much of the
northern to central Plains and into the upper Midwest with blizzard
conditions where the snow is heaviest.  South of the cyclone center,
anomalous warmth will peak Saturday afternoon across the central to
southern High Plains.  The combination of persistently dry and gusty winds
from the west will make for a critical fire risk on Saturday.  Some
showers and thunderstorms should develop ahead of the intensifying cyclone
but they should be confined to the central Plains Saturday night into
Sunday morning.

An upper ridge will maintain a prolonged warm up for parts of the West and
Southwest this weekend. Daily high temperatures are expected to range in
the 60s and 70s for the Great Basin, 70s and 80s for northern California,
and 90s for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Some daily
record-tying/breaking highs will be possible for southern California and
the Desert Southwest. These temperatures will serve as a baseline for even
more anomalous, more widespread record-breaking heat expected into next
week. Meanwhile, conditions will remain much colder behind a front to the
north through the Pacific Northwest, with highs mainly in the 40s.
Temperatures will fluctuate over the next couple of days across the
central U.S. ahead of and following multiple frontal passages.

Campbell/Kong/Orrison/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php