Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025


WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) Marginal Risk areas have been
added for Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday for the coastal Southeast
given the increased moisture and rainfall potential associated with
possible system development that the NHC is monitoring.

A slow main frontal push across from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
states and the Northeast may focus periods with enhanced pooled
moisture and instability to fuel some strong to severe storms and
locally heavy rain/runoff threats with training potential in spots
Sunday into Monday as upper trough/impulse energies work on the
northern periphery of the main central U.S. upper ridge. Trailing
activity extends back next week with impulses over the south-
central U.S. and into the Southwest with some renewed monsoonal
flow. Elongated WPC ERO Marginal Risk areas are depicted for Day
4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday. Convection/MCS activity will also fire
back to the north-central states next week as subsequent upper-
level waves interact with moisture/instability pooling fronts/upper
diffluence. A Day 5/Monday marginal risk area was maintained there.

Meanwhile, a broadening upper ridge will spread a hazardous heat
and humidity threat from the Midwest this holiday weekend to the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast into next week as a very hot summer airmass
lingers broadly over the South and also builds up across the West.

Schichtel