ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 143 PM EST WED JAN 08 2014 VALID 12Z SUN JAN 12 2014 - 12Z THU JAN 16 2014 MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THE TRANSITION PATTERN TOWARD A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH/RIDGE ORIENTATION BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. AT ISSUE IS HOW TO HANDLE ENERGY STREAMING EASTWARD IN THE N AND NE PACIFIC JET AS WELL AS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER/NEAR BANKS ISLAND. THERE... THE GFS AND GEFS MEMBERS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE TO BRING IN LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERIOR COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/ECENS MEMBERS... WHICH HAVE MOSTLY BACKED OFF JUST A BIT. WILL STILL BE CAUTIOUS OF WHAT CAN BE JUST TEMPORARY AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE FORECAST... AND CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. HOWEVER... THE GEFS MEAN /AS CAN BE TYPICAL/ OUTPACES THE ECENS MEAN AS A LEAD SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF SUN/D4. OPTED TO USE A MAJORITY 00Z ECMWF/ECENS WEIGHTING AND A MINORITY 12Z GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN GIVEN THE CHANGES SEEN OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. INDEED THE 12Z ECMWF SPED UP THE EXIT OF THE OLD PARENT LOW IN THE BERING EARLY IN THE FORECAST. OTHER DETAILS IN THE FORECAST... INCLUDING POSSIBLE SPINNING UP A SFC WAVE TUE/D6 PER THE 12Z GFS AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF... BUT NOT ITS 00Z RUN... HIGHLIGHT THE WAFFLING SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. PARTIAL WEIGHTING OF SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEMED SUFFICIENT. REGARDLESS... SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN/SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS INTO THE PANHANDLE. QPF SPREAD IS ACTUALLY NOT THAT LARGE WITH A MODEST EVENT FORECAST. BY WED-THU/D7-8... ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGEST A DEEPER SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AS THE TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET STRENGTHENS. DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS... COLD AIR SHOULD BE UNWILLING TO BUDGE MUCH ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. FRACASSO