ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 137 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 VALID 12Z MON JAN 27 2014 - 12Z FRI JAN 31 2014 ONGOING RIDGING ALONG WESTERN CANADA WILL BE FAVORED TO STAY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE TRIED TO FORECAST HEIGHTS TO LOWER OVER NW CANADA INTO EASTERN ALASKA OVER MANY CYCLES FOR THE DAYS 7-8 PERIOD BUT THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WIN. THE ENSEMBLES MEANS BOTH GRADUALLY LOWER THE HEIGHTS BUT SPREAD INCREASES BETWEEN THE "WEAKER" AND "STRONGER" MEMBERS. PREFER THE CLUSTER WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN ALASKA LIKE THE 12Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. 00Z ECMWF WAS NOT PREFERRED WITH ITS HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE PANHANDLE TUE/D5 AMID WEAK ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. TO THE WEST... THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO QUICK TO MOVE LOW PRESSURE NORTHEASTWARD COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS AND GEFS/ECENS MEANS. THE 12Z GFS... HOWEVER... MAY BE TOO SHARP WITH ENERGY MOVING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE ARCTIC TOWARD THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO TUE-WED BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND POSSIBLY LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE PANHANDLE. PREFER TO KEEP THE COLDER AIR EAST OF THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL STATE-WIDE. SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD FAVOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN KENAI AND INTO THE AKPEN... WHERE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST TWO INCHES OF QPF EXCEED 45 PERCENT. FRACASSO