ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 130 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014 VALID 12Z THU JAN 30 2014 - 12Z MON FEB 03 2014 PUNCTUATED UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN STUMBLES TOWARD A REORGANIZATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS TOWARD WESTERN ALASKA ALONG 150W OR SO. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SHOWN WOEFUL CONTINUITY... BUT AT TIMES AT LEAST CLUSTER NEAR THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS ENOUGH TO USE FOR ADDED DETAIL TO THE FORECAST. THE 00Z ECMWF AGAIN RESEMBLED THE MEANS TODAY... AND USED A 50/50 WEIGHTING WITH ITS MEAN DAYS 4-5 BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD A 50/50 SPLIT BETWEEN THE 00Z GEFS MEAN... WHICH SHOWED STRONGER RIDGING... AND THE 00Z ECENS MEAN... WHICH HAS VERIFIED BETTER OVER THE LONG TERM. THIS KEPT DECENT CONTINUITY BUT THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS REMAINS A CHALLENGE... THOUGH SYSTEMS WILL BE KEPT TO THE BERING AND THE PACIFIC THANKS TO THE BLOCKING UPPER HIGH. CONTINUED TO PREFER A WEAKER VERSION OF ANY MID-LEVEL SYSTEM THAT ACTS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTROY/PUNCTURE THE UPPER HIGH... WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES AS A WHOLE. THOUGH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST... THE PANHANDLE MAY SLIP BELOW NORMAL SHOULD THE UPPER HIGH MOVE WEST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SFC HIGH OVER THE YUKON TO CHANNEL COLDER AIR WESTWARD. FRACASSO