ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 127 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 VALID 12Z FRI JAN 31 2014 - 12Z TUE FEB 04 2014 ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME... AS UPPER RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER NORTHERN ALASKA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUE TO SHIFT IN THE FORECAST... MORE OR LESS IN UNISON... BUT THE BIGGEST CHANGES TO CONTINUITY ARE LARGELY OVER THE OPEN WATERS IN THE WESTERN BERING AND NE PACIFIC BUT ALSO INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECENS MEAN MOST CLOSELY MAINTAINS CONTINUITY FROM EARLIER RUNS AND IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GEFS TO MOVE MID-LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTH OF KODIAK WHILE THE GEFS LINGERS IT NEAR BRISTOL BAY. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TOWARD NW AK... FELT THE ECENS MEAN LOOKS BETTER BY KEEPING IT MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ITS MEAN AGAIN TODAY WHICH KEEPS SOME DETAILS KNOWING ALL TOO WELL THAT THINGS WILL CHANGE A BIT IN FUTURE RUNS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH RIDGE-PUNCTURING ENERGY AND HAS SHOWED A LARGE VARIABILITY IN HANDLING ENERGY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BUT MAY HAVE MORE USE OVER THE INTERIOR. ABOVE TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RULE FROM NW TO SE /INTO THE PANHANDLE/ AS THE SFC HIGH OVER THE YUKON CHANNELS SOME COLDER AIR WESTWARD. FRACASSO