ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1234 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014 VALID 12Z MON FEB 03 2014 - 12Z FRI FEB 07 2014 THE 30/00Z GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE WELL-CLUSTERED AND USED AS THE BASELINE FOR THE DAY4-8 FORECAST. AND FOR ALASKA...REMAINS A RATHER STABLE FORECAST HEADING INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF FEBRUARY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH A CLOSED 500MB LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH 'BLOCKED' ALONG 170W AND THE DATELINE. WHAT ENERGY CAN EMERGE FROM THIS LONGWAVE APPEARS TO HAVE ONLY ONE EXIT POINT...INVOF 45N AND 150W-160W. THE BETTER ORGANIZED ENERGY WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON...RATHER THAN INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE 30/00Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND 30/12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS DO ROTATE A WEAK SURFACE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY DAY 7...BUT ESSENTIALLY ITS STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF 50N BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK TO THE DATELINE BY DAY 8. THIS RATHER GOOD CONTINUITY--EVEN BETWEEN THE SOMETIMES ERRATIC DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS RUNS BEYOND DAY 6--BODES WELL FOR A 'BLOCKY' PATTERN TO EMERGE WORKING INTO THE D+8 TIME PERIOD. OF NOTE...THE LATEST CPC FORECAST BRIEFING FROM EARLIER TODAY FOR WEEK 2...KEEPS A FORMIDABLE RIDGE BETWEEN 140W-150W IN THE EAST PAC/EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING FOR AS THE D+8 PATTERN EVOVLES--A GRADUAL SHORT-TERM RETROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO EXTREME WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. VOJTESAK