ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 216 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014 VALID 12Z THU MAY 15 2014 - 12Z MON MAY 19 2014 CLOSED UPPER HIGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN... NOT UNEXPECTEDLY... A SLOWER WEAKENING OF THE HIGH WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE INFUSION OF LOWER HEIGHTS PAST THE NORTH SLOPE INTO THE INTERIOR. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ENSEMBLE MEANS TO BRING IN LOWER HEIGHTS AS IT WEAKENS THE UPPER HIGH QUICKER THAN THE REST. PREFER TO STAY WITH THE TREND THAT MAINTAINS THE HIGH OVER THE AKPEN INTO THE WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEK... THE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON BUILDING RIDGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SOME HEIGHT FALLS TO SLIP INTO THE INTERIOR. THE 12Z GFS/06Z GEFS/00Z ECENS MEANS CLUSTERED WELL TOGETHER AND THEIR CONSENSUS WAS USED AS THE BASE FOR THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE IN A RATHER QUIET WEATHER REGIME. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN AREAS FROM KING SALMON TO BETHEL TOWARD COOK INLET. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE GFS AND EVEN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. FRACASSO